Brownlow's GIFs: Cameron will be a glass case of emotion for Coach K's Senior Night
Posted March 4, 2022 7:46 p.m. EST
It's strange — it's not Mike Krzyzewski's last game as head coach at Duke, but it does feel like a farewell. Because it's the only time this season where we know that this is Coach K's last version of something that means a lot. We won't know when his final ACC Tournament game is until it's over. We won't know when his last NCAA Tournament game is until it's over. It's his Senior Night, his time to say goodbye to Cameron Indoor Stadium, a place that has meant so much to him and vice versa.
It was going to be an emotional moment no matter what. Amplify the emotion up to 11, as they'd say in Spinal Tap, and maybe multiply it by a few million and you'll have Saturday, basically. Because it's that moment COMBINED with a Duke-Carolina game.
The first meeting between these two was far from the instant classic that plenty of their previous meetings have been. Duke would have been favored against almost any team in the country in this situation. By a lot. It's already a lot of pressure to play in a Duke-Carolina game. Now add being a Duke player playing in Coach K's last game into that mix. It's ... the type of pressure you and I can't begin to imagine.
But will Carolina feel any of that? How will Duke handle it? It's going to be fun.
Let's get to the GIFs!
NORTH CAROLINA (22-8, 14-5 ACC) AT NO. 4 DUKE (26-4, 16-3 ACC)
Time: 6 p.m.
TV: All of them (ESPN)
#ANALYSIS
Don't look now, but ... Duke is starting to click offensively. In the first game between these two, Duke's offensive performance seemed more like an aberration. But three of Duke's five best offensive efficiency numbers of the season have come in Duke's last four games. Duke made nine or more 3-pointers in six of its first 10 games this year, then went on a cold streak where it shot 33.3% or worse in five of six games. Another hot streak, another cold one, and then the last four games — 44 of 101 from 3 — happened. Duke having the interior players it does AND being able to hit 3-pointers feels like a cheat code. Duke was 9 of 19 from 3 against UNC and it was their 5th-best percentage from 3 all season. And if Duke hadn't hit nearly 63% of its 2-point tries, it might have tried (and made) more 3-pointers.
What I'm saying here is that if Duke is hitting 3-pointers against North Carolina, we can all say goodnight. North Carolina is going to have to both hit 3-pointers AND hope Duke doesn't get hot. One thing working in UNC's favor? Duke has not gotten hot very often at home from 3. Duke has shot over 40% from beyond the arc eight times in ACC play, and seven of those came on the road. Duke is 26 of 54 in its last two games, both on the road, but still. If that travels back home? The question isn't who wins, it's by how much.
The only other potential basketball-related wrinkle would be turnovers. Both of these teams have a tendency to get a bit turnover-prone at bad times, although less so for Duke (significantly less so) in recent games. Ever since the Virginia loss when duke turned it over on 23.5% of its possessions, Duke's has been at or above 19% just once.
North Carolina will need Duke's help. That much has been established. And one thing that could aid in that is how much pressure Duke will be under. Duke already hasn't played as well at Cameron this year as it typically does, and nowhere nearly as well as it has played on the road. If I'm Hubert Davis, I'm telling my guys constantly that all the pressure is on Duke. It's not often Carolina gets to play the role of the underdog, sure. But it's also not often Carolina goes into a game with no pressure. I know that some will say Carolina needs this game to make the NCAA Tournament. I'm not so sure about that, but let's shelve that for now. Most people watching this game expect them to get destroyed. So if they can somehow manage to stick around with Duke for the first, say, 30 minutes, the pressure will shift right back to Duke. The Blue Devils do seem to have turned a corner in recent weeks and look far more like a juggernaut than they did earlier. And this even seems weird to type, but can they bring that same energy at home in this spot? Probably, right? Yes? Maybe? Definitely?
NAMES TO KNOW
Armando Bacot. Even if his teammates either can't or don't always recognize it (based solely on how often they give him a good pass inside in a position to score), he's been a remarkably consistent star for the Tar Heels this year and has continued to improve each season. The junior has played in his share of Carolina-Duke games, too, which helps. But Bacot doesn't face teams like Duke very often that have the size and defensive ability to neutralize him, and that's what happened in the first meeting when he had a season-low five rebounds and 12 points on 4 of 10 shooting. It's almost like in the last two games especially, Bacot realized how much his team is relying on his production and he has averaged 22.5 points in that span on 16 of 25 shooting, adding 18.0 rebounds per game. He picked up his third foul when Carolina was still in the game in the first matchup, and that absolutely cannot happen this time.
Another thing he'll have to do is be a calming presence for his younger teammates. If he loses his head, so will they. And he's been really good about that this year, but this situation is extraordinary. And even if Bacot isn't getting a ton of rebounds or scoring a ton of points, he needs to do all he can to try to get Duke's star big men in foul trouble. If he can do that, it will free up Carolina to do far more offensively than it could have otherwise.
Wendell Moore, Jr. You want to know the one thing all of Duke's ACC losses have in common? Wendell Moore either had more turnovers than assists or at least four turnovers. The senior has been an invaluable presence for Duke in so many ways this season, stuffing the stat sheet and involving his talented teammates and leading the way on defense. But he has been a little turnover-prone at times. Not against North Carolina, though, when he had five assists to no turnovers. He was even better at Clemson two games later, dishing out eight assists to no turnovers. Since the Virginia loss (one assist, two turnovers), Moore has 36 assists to nine turnovers. In the last two games, it's 11-3. Oh, and he's still hitting double digits more often than not and getting steals and rebounds.
Moore isn't a senior, although it still could be his final game in Cameron. Either way, he's a leader on this team and a guy his teammates will look to (besides Coach K, obviously) to take their cues from. Moore is going to feel the pressure because, you know, he's a human being. If he keeps playing the way he has been and keeps a cool head, he'll keep his team calm too and things will be much easier.
NARRATIVES
North Carolina Win:
North Carolina Loss:
Duke Win:
Duke Loss:
PREDICTION
Duke, 81-69. I think UNC leads at some point in the first half, and I'm not just talking 2-0. But I think Duke leads for ... most of the rest of the game. Maybe a halftime run where they pull away.
