Brownlow's GIFs: Duke running out of chances to win an ACC game as Louisville comes to town
Posted November 18, 2021 2:26 p.m. EST
So, uh, Duke and Louisville are playing a football game tonight on primetime television! Bowl eligibility for Duke is off the table. Duke hasn't won a game since September 25 (although it was a win that gives Duke a transitive win over Texas, so there's that!). Remember that Kansas game? Duke scored 52 points. Do you know how many points Duke has in the last four games combined? Fifty-three. 5-3. And 29 of those were in one (super weird) game against Pitt. Duke has also allowed 102 points in the last two games alone and at least 45 points in four straight games. And there's speculation about head coach David Cutcliffe's future. So, things aren't going well.
Meanwhile, Louisville has plenty to play for. A bowl game secured before facing rival Kentucky, for one. Thursday night football. And never forget, Louisville is the team against which Duke's lawyers successfully argued that they should not have to pay $450,000 in damages for canceling a contract to play them out of conference because Duke was the worst Division I football team. That feels like simultaneously forever ago and yet very recent.
Let's, uh, get to the GIFs.
LOUISVILLE (5-5, 3-4 ACC) AT DUKE (3-7, 0-6 ACC)
Time: 7:30 p.m.
TV: ESPN
#ANALYSIS
One thing you can say for Duke is not unlike another rival team in the area, it is significantly better at home. Duke is 0-5 on the road this year and has a total of 31 points in four ACC road games. And they've allowed AT LEAST 38 POINTS in all four of those road games. If your total number of points through four games does not even equal the lowest total by an opponent in ONE game, that's ... not great! But at home, Duke is 3-2 and only one of the losses was by double digits. The Pitt game was close for a hot minute too, and as we know, Pitt is pretty good.
It's weird to say at this point of a college football season, but it's hard to know how good Louisville actually is. Like Duke, Louisville started out 3-1. Unlike Duke, Louisville has one ACC road win but is overall 1-2 on the road. They've been in all but two games this year, and both were against ranked teams in Mississippi and NC State. But to go from playing the way they did at NC State (not well) on Halloween Eve to pounding a Syracuse team playing for a bowl game just two weeks later? To hold a team with the best running back in the conference to 3.54 yards per carry? It's puzzling. And in spite of hearing a lot about how bad Louisville's rush defense is, they've actually now allowed anyone to go over 3.5 yards per carry in five straight games. Not great news for a Duke team whose best offensive player is a running back in Mataeo Durant, and a running back that hasn't been able to get going because of how much teams are keying on him and how far behind Duke gets early.
Louisville's pass defense is suspect, but can Duke exploit that?
The one area that could make this game more interesting is turnovers. Louisville only has 12 on the year and has a +1 margin on the season, and it's been a big improvement over last year. But they're not forcing a ton either (13 forced). Duke has only forced 14 and committed 18 (-4). But frankly, after turning it over 39 times in 11 games last year, that number is a huge improvement. Duke has lost eight turnovers in its last four games, though, and hasn't "won" the turnover battle since October 9 — a narrow loss to Georgia Tech. If Duke's defense can luck into some turnovers and the offense can capitalize on them, it at least makes this more interesting. If not? Hard to imagine Duke hanging in the game for long.
THIS GUY
Malik Cunningham. Duke's defense is bad. We all understand this. And Cunningham might make it look worse than that if Duke doesn't figure out a way to slow down Louisville's dual-threat quarterback. Cunningham has completed 61.3% of his passes this year but he had one of his best games of the season against a tough Syracuse defense, completing 13 of 18 passes for 209 yards and four touchdowns. It's clear Syracuse keyed on him as a runner as he had just 19 rushing yards, a season-low, on seven attempts. But that didn't matter. Cunningham does still have 709 rushing yards (and 16 touchdowns!) on the year, so he's going to be a threat with his legs as well. If he gets going and starts making big plays, it'll be a big ask for Duke to keep pace.
HERE'S A GUY
Jordan Moore. Gunnar Holmberg is doing more this week for Duke, so he may start. But Moore got his first extended action against Virginia Tech and definitely showed some good things. He ran it 17 times for 113 yards and a score while completing 6 of 12 passes for 63 yards and another touchdown. He also didn't throw a pick. Moore was a 3-star recruit at quarterback and recruited by some schools who wanted to convert him to another position. But that shows how impressive his athleticism and speed are. There's no telling what the future holds for Duke football beyond this season. But it's tough to imagine Moore not seeing a few more series than he might have otherwise, especially if the game gets out of hand. But even if it doesn't, he might.
NARRATIVES
Duke Win:
Duke Loss:
PREDICTION
Louisville, 44-20. I mean, Duke would take 20 points at this point. Right?
