Brownlow's GIFs: Duke, UNC get their ACC Tournament started
Posted March 10, 2022 10:40 a.m. EST
After two days of tantalizing ACC Tournament action, Duke and North Carolina are ready to get things started after their double bye. Less interesting than their particular quarterfinal matchups, though, are how each will respond mentally to what happened last Saturday. It's not like we can harken back to the last time a team lost the final home game of its legendary head coach ending his 42-year career as the greatest to ever do it. How does Duke bounce back from that? They're ready for a fresh start, but will it linger? And while the idea of letdown games is a bit cliche, it's hard to argue that North Carolina is bound to have some sort of emotional letdown. That's just human nature, right? And though the Tar Heels no longer need to win a game to make the NCAA Tournament field, with as up and down as their last two seasons have been, it would be huge for them to establish some level of consistency as the year ends.
Duke will at least get to have an opponent it very much likes to see, both because Coach K and Jim Boeheim are good friends and also because Duke beat Syracuse by a million twice this year. North Carolina will have its hands full with a Virginia team that is better than the one it beat by double digits in Chapel Hill, a team that requires focus and discipline on every possession to beat. It's likely that we see these two teams meet a third time in an ACC title game if both win today, but whether or not that can happen remains to be seen.
Let's get to the GIFs!
NO. 1 DUKE (26-5) VS. NO. 9 SYRACUSE (16-16)
Time: 12 p.m.
TV: ESPN
#ANALYSIS
Whether they'd admit it or not, Duke's staff was absolutely thrilled with the result of the 8-9 game. Syracuse is a team that Duke absolutely dominated — twice. Add in the fact that the ACC's leading scorer Buddy Boeheim was suspended after punching Wyatt Wilkes in Syracuse's blowout win over Florida State, plus Benny Williams' season-ending injury? That means 37 of the 72 points Syracuse scored in Duke's 97-72 win over the Orange nearly two weeks ago will not be on the floor in this one. It's really the ideal situation for Duke to be in coming off of Saturday. At the end of the day, Duke knows it can do what it wants against Syracuse offensively. They'll need to shoot very poorly and Syracuse will have to shoot out of its mind for a second straight game. I know that March is the time that even average Syracuse teams make a run. I know Syracuse is capable of shooting better than it did against Duke. But how are they going to STOP Duke? They've shown zero ability to do that all year. Why would it start now?
NAMES TO KNOW
Mark Williams. There was probably no Duke player happier to see Syracuse win than Williams, as the sophomore averaged 21.5 points on 17 of 21 shooting in two games against the Orange. Paolo Banchero is such a gifted passer that the zone doesn't really bother Duke all that much, and he and Williams play very well together. For a shot-blocker, Williams has done a great job of avoiding foul trouble most of the season and he'll need to keep doing that. As long as he and Banchero can stay on the court, it's hard to imagine Syracuse can do much to slow them down.
Cole Swider. When Syracuse has had success this year, Swider has been a big reason why. The Villanova transfer has shown he's capable of scoring at an incredibly high level when he gets hot. It's how Syracuse went from losing its final four games of the regular season to pounding Florida State by 40 in the ACC Tournament. Swider has had some big games in losses, too — ask Carolina how it feels when Swider gets going — but his 28 points on 9 of 15 shooting to go with 13 rebounds are a big reason the Orange were so dominant. Swider had 11 points in Syracuse's first loss to Duke but was just 1 of 6 from the 3-point line. He made that 1 of 7 from 3 in the second meeting; he finished with just two points in 14 minutes on 1 of 4 shooting in that one. Without Boeheim and Williams, Swider is going to have to score ... a lot.
NARRATIVES
Duke Win:
Duke Loss:
PREDICTION
Duke, 110-79. I'm kidding. But maybe like 80-67? Is that better?
NO. 3 NORTH CAROLINA (23-8) VS. NO. 6 VIRGINIA (19-12)
Time 9:30 p.m.
TV: ESPN
#ANALYSIS
Imagine knowing you were part of a North Carolina team that beat its most hated rival and defeated said rival's most important figure in his last home game. Even if you want to finish the season strong and prove you're for real, you have to know on some level that it's not getting any better than that, right? And that's not a knock on North Carolina! It's just to say that aside from winning a national title this year, is there anything else this UNC team could do that would top that? That's rhetorical, because the answer is no. And so now, UNC will face off against a Virginia team that is probably still annoyed at the beat down UNC handed them in Chapel Hill back in January, and it's a better version of Virginia than that one. Virginia is a team that requires patience and discipline to play well against, and even then it still might not go your way. Carolina played very well the last time it played Virginia, and it played very well in its last game. It's capable of doing that. But will the let down be a factor? While Carolina matches up well with Virginia, the style of play certainly makes this a less than ideal first opponent. I do think if UNC wins this game it's going to make a run. The question is whether or not it gets past this game. Can the Tar Heels bring the same level of focus and execution that they brought to Cameron? If they can do that in consecutive games, it will almost be more impressive than the win in Cameron itself.
NAMES TO KNOW
Armando Bacot. Pretty good evidence of how much Bacot has improved: in his first three career games against Virginia, he had 26 points combined on 11 of 21 shooting. In the teams' only meeting THIS season, Bacot had 29 points on 12 of 18 shooting and 22 rebounds. So he had more combined made field goals and points in this year's game alone than he did in his first three combined. But Virginia is a difficult team for big men to play against when they are at their double-teaming best, and Bacot will need to be ready to pass out of it. He's also going to need to stay out of foul trouble, something he's done remarkably well lately. But he has picked up three or more fouls in seven of Carolina's eight losses, so it's been a factor in most of them. Bacot has been on a tear to end the year, scoring 68 points in the final three games on 26 of 36 shooting. Will that roll continue as he carries the Tar Heels into the heart of March?
Jayden Gardner. The Wake Forest, N.C. native had more success in his return trip to Durham than he did in Chapel Hill. And not just because Virginia won in Chapel Hill, but also because Gardner had 17 points in Durham and managed to help slow down Banchero. In the loss at UNC, Gardner had 10 points on 5 of 10 shooting. That seems fine, but in the last 14 games for Virginia, he's scored more than that in 13 of them. His improvement has been a big key to Virginia's resurgence, and a dominant game from him could spell trouble.
NARRATIVES
North Carolina Win
North Carolina Loss:
PREDICTION
North Carolina, 72-64. Every time I think it's obvious that UNC will lose, they do not. It feels *too* obvious in this case.
