Brownlow's GIFs: Hate it if you must, but just like the SEC, Duke-Carolina just means more

By Lauren Brownlow, WRALSportsFan columnist/reporter

Yeah, that headline might seem like clickbait. (The correct definition of clickbait this time, and not the one where people refer to tweets without a link in them as clickbait. It would be like fishing by just throwing food into the water and not having any mechanism to catch said fish. I realize that there are folks out there who do not care for the Duke-Carolina rivalry for a lot of reasons. And I get it. A lot of you hate both teams, or despise one and don't like the other, or some combination of both. Some of you are NC State fans who feel that YOUR rivalry with UNC has more history behind it and more regional animosity. You have good points!

So I get why my headline could rile people up. It's basically implying that you're jealous of it instead of having legit reasons to dislike it. Has it been hyped artificially at times? Of course! Is it annoying to those who don't care about the game to have to see commercials for it every two seconds for as much as two weeks before? Sure!

Well, haters, if you've read this far, you have perhaps your best chance ever to see the hype behind it start to dissipate: coaching changes! First it was Roy Williams, and now Mike Krzyzewski will step down at the end of this year. All it takes is a few bad hires to send even a once-proud blue blood spiraling down a rabbit hole. While there's no indication either of those schools has or will do that, the game is going to lose some of its gravitas just by virtue of the winningest coach in college basketball not being on one of the sidelines.

This game marks the beginning of the end of an era. Think about it: when is the last time one of these two schools didn't have one of the best ever on the sideline for this game, whether it was Dean Smith or Roy Williams or Mike Krzyzewski? And if you go back to the 1950s, you're still getting two coaches that were pretty darned good (Harold Bradley led Duke to its first NCAA Tournament appearances and Frank McGuire went undefeated and beat Wilt Chamberlain for a natty, so yeah).

Anyway, look. The point is that you never really know. But at the same time, a rivalry where you have to go back nearly 100 years to find the time they both had coaches that weren't really good is pretty wild. And the hype machine is justified at this point! It's hard to argue otherwise. These two teams are perennial Final Four contenders who are usually playing with first place in the league at stake. Just like they are this time. Maybe it's not No. 1 UNC vs. No. 3 Duke, as it was in the first-ever game in the Smith Center. But there are always stakes, and that's why it matters.

So, yeah. Duke-Carolina Part I: Coach K Farewell Tour begins on Saturday. Buckle your seatbelts. Or, you know, just change the channel if you don't want to watch.

NO. 9 DUKE (18-3, 8-2 ACC) AT NORTH CAROLINA (16-6, 8-3 ACC)

Time: 6 p.m.
TV: Everywhere (kidding: ESPN)

#ANALYSIS

It would be great to compare these teams on the basis of what they do well night in and night out, but this game is just different. It can bring out the best in some players and the worst in others, and there's often no rhyme or reason to who or why. Also, as we know, North Carolina has been up and down. So I'll just pick a few categories that have often been important in wins or losses for both teams:

-Turnovers. In ACC play alone, Duke is 12th in the league in turnover percentage on offense. And we've seen it play out that way in both Duke's wins and losses. Duke is 3-2 this season when it turns it over on 20% or more of its possessions and 15-1 when it stays below that.

The good news for Duke is that North Carolina's defense? It doesn't really force turnovers. The Tar Heels are 356th NATIONALLY in defensive turnover percentage. Duke hasn't always needed for turnovers to be forced, per se (side note: someone please get me a forced/unforced turnover stat). Having Trevor Keels back should help some with this, but Duke still turned it over on 21.3% of its possessions against Notre Dame in Keels' first game back. It can't give North Carolina anything easy due to carelessness.

On the flip side, North Carolina's issue hasn't so much been turnovers (although it has been sometimes) as it has what the opponents do with those turnovers. Hubert Davis said it best on Thursday: in UNC's blowout losses in January, it felt like every single turnover they had was turned into points. Duke's offense in the halfcourt has been ... well, not as good as its defense. And so to give Duke easy buckets in transition would be a bad idea.

-3-point shooting (and defending). Carolina is 15th in the country in 3-point shooting (38.5%) and scores 32.1% of its points from beyond the arc. It is absolutely wild to look at the Ken Pom stats and see how few of UNC's points are scored on 2-pointers compared to past seasons especially. Carolina has shot the 3-pointer pretty consistently well this year and when it hasn't, things have gone badly. Like, very badly. As in three of its four blowout losses badly. Carolina is 0-3 on the season and lost all three games by at least 22 points when it shoots below 30% from 3.

Of course, Duke is holding opponents in ACC play to just 26.7% from beyond the arc. In the last two games, Duke's opponents have gone 9 of 39 from 3 after Duke had allowed FSU, Syracuse and Clemson to hit 34 of 80 in a 3-game span. Duke wants to limit the attempts you get from 3 as much as it wants to defend them well, and Carolina is going to have trouble getting clean looks. When it does, it had better hit them.

Duke's capable of getting hot from beyond the arc, but it has largely seemed to be feast or famine. If Duke gets hot from 3, and it doesn't need to to win the game, but it feels like that would be too much for UNC to overcome. The only way it could hurt Duke is if the Blue Devils start chasing 3-pointers instead of getting it to Paolo Banchero in the post a bunch. Or even at the 3-point line, since UNC has had a lot of issues with big men who can go out on the perimeter. But we'll get to that later.

-Rebounding. There's not a ton to nitpick on the defensive end when it comes to Duke: they force turnovers pretty well, don't put opponents on the foul line (they're No. 1 nationally in defensive free-throw rate) and get blocks and steals galore. But what they don't do consistently is finish defensive possessions with a rebound. Duke is 244th nationally in defensive rebounding percentage and it has been a consistent issue in ACC play. It hasn't always mattered to the outcome of the games themselves, mind you, but it's been a thing. Duke did do a pretty good job on the defensive boards against Louisville and Notre Dame in its last two games, but the Irish especially aren't a team that gets a ton of offensive rebounds.

Carolina has obviously traditionally been an elite offensive rebounding team. And they're a solid one this year, ranking in the top half nationally in that category and fourth in ACC games only. But to see them rebounding less than a third of their missed shots is ... jarring. Still, they've rebounded at least a third of their misses in six of their last eight games. Duke's shot-blocking ability means it at times trades some defensive rebounding, and so it'll be interesting to see how Duke balances that out strategically. And for Carolina, it's less about the retrieval of its missed shots than it is what it does with said shots. The Tar Heels rebounded nearly 40% of its misses against Wake Forest. They lost by 22. That was also about UNC's defense, but you get the picture.

Duke always had the capability of becoming an elite offensive rebounding team, and they've really turned it on in ACC play, ranking second in the conference in offensive rebounding percentage. That's been huge for Duke as it hasn't been an elite shooting team game in and game out. While Carolina has slipped some in the offensive rebounding category, though, it is third nationally in defensive rebounding percentage. And it will need every bit of that defensive rebounding ability. Carolina's defense isn't elite, but if it can force a first-shot miss (or if Duke just, you know, misses), it absolutely has to keep Duke from getting multiple looks.

NAMES TO KNOW

Paolo Banchero. What's left to say about him that hasn't already been said? He has a skill level you just do not see very often at the college level. He's starting to reach Zion Williamson levels for me not in the sense of how dynamic he is (Banchero is only highlight-reel worthy for the true basketball purists), but in terms of how much I want him to touch the basketball. It's mesmerizing to watch him work. And while foul trouble often plagues big men, it does not plague Banchero. He's only ever picked up four fouls in a game once, and not coincidentally it was a Duke loss (at Ohio State). Oh, and he blocks shots too. Not as many as Mark Williams, but still. And he'll be a factor in that North Carolina's bigs are going to have to find a way to defend him without fouling. He draws 5.1 fouls per 40 minutes.

He's not without flaws, obviously. Sneakily he has not played as well for Duke as of late as he had been. He's 4 of 16 from 3 in the last four games and has only attempted seven free throws in that stretch, including none at Notre Dame. Obviously it didn't matter much in that game, but still. Louisville gave him a lot of trouble as well and he shot 5 of 15 overall, a rare game for him where he didn't shoot at least 50% from 2. But Banchero gets blocks, he gets steals, he gets rebounds, and he usually makes 3s and 2s and I mean what doesn't this guy do?! I don't think he'll be the most important player for Duke necessarily if they are to win. But I do think the possibility of what could happen if he gets Armando Bacot and/or Brady Manek in foul trouble could be the most important factor.

Caleb Love. There hasn't been much consistent about North Carolina this season, but one thing until recently had been that if Love didn't play well, especially against good teams, UNC was going to lose. And to be honest? Even though UNC has won some games without Love playing well, that is still true. When love has an ORtg (offensive player rating) of over 100, UNC is 13-2. When he's below that? UNC is 5-4, but all five wins have come against teams ranked 113th or worse in Ken Pom. Yes, even Louisville and Boston College. Love has the ball in his hands the most and obviously has the trust of the coaching staff. More often than not this season, he has delivered.

But there are moments within games where he gets knocked back early and seemingly can't recover. To me, the bigger takeaway from UNC's win at Louisville wasn't that UNC won in spite of Love playing poorly (although it was his lowest ORtg in a UNC win this season). It was that Love himself bounced back from a tough moment when he got the ball stolen from him after UNC could have dribbled out the clock. Love made the first 3-pointer in overtime, then had an assist to Brady Manek and went 5 of 6 from the foul line. He did what he needed to do.

And yes, against Duke last year Love averaged 21.5 points and made seemingly every shot attempt he took in spite of struggling to score in most other games. But last year is last year, as everyone involved has said. Still, there's clearly something about big moments that Love embraces, and maybe he will in this one.

NARRATIVES

Duke Win:

Duke Loss:

North Carolina Win:

North Carolina Loss:

PREDICTION

North Carolina, 75-67. Literally the only reason I am picking this is because I think these teams will split this year and I think there is ZERO chance of UNC winning in Coach K's final game in Cameron.