Brownlow's GIFs: NC State faces red-hot Louisville while UNC, Duke hope for anything positive

By Lauren Brownlow, WRALSportsFan columnist/reporter

After a week when UNC and Duke were off and NC State stepped out of the Atlantic Division, all three will be seeing far more familiar opponents on Saturday. Although weirdly, even though NC State and Duke are playing opponents they normally play every year, neither played said opponents last year because of COVID. Go figure. The only rematch from last season is UNC and Notre Dame, and Notre Dame isn't even in the ACC. But they were last year. My head hurts.

Anyway, Duke probably wishes the rest of its season were made up of bye weeks considering the way things have gone so far, and if Wake needed only 17 minutes time of possession to hang 70 points on Army ... welp. And NC State is not out of it by any means after the disappointing loss to Miami. But the Wolfpack have lost any real margin for error, and every game becomes more and more important. Every game left for the Wolfpack is winnable. But all are also losable. It starts this week.

So let's get to the GIFs! And since it's Halloween, I opted to go with the opponent's mascot for each Triangle team, since all have a horror movie tie-in.

DUKE (3-4, 0-3 ACC) AT NO. 13 WAKE FOREST (7-0, 4-0 ACC)

Time: 4 p.m.
TV: ACC Network

#ANALYSIS

Probably the first indication all was not well in Duke football was when the Blue Devils lost 59-7 to Wake Forest to end the 2019 season. Duke went 4-8 in 2016, but that seemed like an aberration once Duke went 7-6 in 2017 and began the 2018 season 5-1. Duke even got out to 7-3 after a big win over UNC before losing big at Clemson (understandable) and then losing 59-7 to Wake ... at home (far less so). Wake was on the verge of fully turning things around under Dave Clawson, but that team still finished 7-6 and to lose to them by more than you lost to Clemson? At home? ON SENIOR DAY? Yikes. And it's been mostly bad for Duke ever since, really. Even this year's 3-1 start wasn't sustainable. Duke's lost four in a row and for the offense that we saw earlier this season to go out against a bad Virginia defense and literally not score? Yeah ... that's not good.

Meanwhile, what to make of the Deacs? Obviously they're very good. But how good? Advanced metrics don't like Wake for a variety of reasons, but one of them is the schedule so far. Wake wasn't making its schedule with a Playoff berth in mind, so that's understandable too. But the defense? Well, it's 97th nationally in yards per play allowed (5.9). The real question is how much that will matter Duke's purposes, though. My guess is not a ton since Duke literally just went scoreless against a team that is worse than Wake (Virginia, 110th).

What does matter at this point for the Blue Devils, though? Are they just playing out the string? At this point, it feels like making a bowl game will at least make a potential decision on Cutcliffe interesting. But that's going to be ... well, after its trip to Wake, Duke hosts a ranked Pitt team before hosting Virginia Tech, Louisville and Miami to end the year. Are there three more wins there? Does Cutcliffe need more than that? I think at this point, Duke folks just want to see some sort of sign of life. There is literally no reason Duke could not score a single point against Virginia.

Duke might be 60th in yards per play on the season, but in the month of October, they're 111th. I insisted — wrongly! — after Duke's first four games that while the Blue Devils were going to struggle this season to win a ton of games, the offense would score points. That was after Duke putting up at least 5.7 yards per play against its first four opponents. Well ... since, it has managed 4.98 against UNC's hardly-a-juggernaut defense, 5.4 against Georgia Tech and a paltry 4.0 at Virginia. It has not helped that Duke went from a 0 turnover margin (seven lost, seven gained) in its first four games to -4 in the last three (seven lost, three gained). The defense is what it is at this point. It's going to struggle with Wake. If Duke can't score, and score a lot, plus take care of the football? Well, it could be as ugly as 59-7.

THIS GUY

Mataeo Durant. I know that I pick him a lot. And to be fair, it's not as if him running the ball effectively is a guarantee of anything. But him *not* running the ball effectively pretty much guarantees Duke's having a bad game, even if it's not his fault. Against Virginia, Duke was behind so much of the afternoon that Durant got just 17 carries, a season-low against FBS opponents, for 82 yards, also a season low. And speaking of things that are different now, Durant had eight touchdowns in Duke's first four games and just one in the last three on the ground. Durant was finding success as a receiver early on too, catching 11 passes for 179 yards in the first four games compared to just 15 yards on seven catches in the last three. He's one of Duke's more reliable and dangerous playmakers, but if the offense is struggling, he's not going to have as much impact as he could. The last time Durant faced Wake two years ago in a 39-27 loss, Durant had seven rushes for 71 yards while Wake bottled up then-starter Deon Jackson. He'll have to get far more than seven carries, sadly, but Duke needs him going at a high level for its offense to do well.

HERE'S A GUY

Sam Hartman. Believe it or not, Wake's quarterback has never played against Duke in spite of being at Wake Forest for the last decade. I kid. But it feels like it at times, right? But it might be time to talk about the fact that Hartman should be in the Heisman conversation. He's completing 65.3% of his passes and averaging 9.7 yards per pass attempt, throwing for 19 touchdowns to just three interceptions. Oh, and he has four rushing touchdowns as well and is averaging a crisp 3.3 yards per rush. Also, he's in line to be the next Bachelor. Not really. But there are a group of us advocating for such things. Anyway, he's got Wake's offense humming along very nicely. He was hurt two years ago the last time Duke played Wake, but Jamie Newman ran the ball 29 times for 144 yards and a touchdown while completing 14 of 25 passes for 284 yards and a touchdown. Duke's defense is ... well, it's not the best. Hartman led the Wake offense to a 70-spot last week. If Duke doesn't figure something out on that side of the ball, it's not unreasonable to think it could happen again.

NARRATIVES

Duke Win:

Duke Loss:

PREDICTION

Wake Forest, 47-13. I think the Deacs will be fired up to hear about how bad their defense was all week, and Duke will ... not get shut out, I guess?

NORTH CAROLINA (4-3) AT NO. 11 NOTRE DAME (6-1)

Time: 7:30 p.m.
TV: NBC

#ANALYSIS

Well this game sure seemed a lot more interesting a few months ago, didn't it? Maybe even *a* month ago, if we're being honest. When Notre Dame struggled with the first few teams on its schedule, there was widespread concern. When they lost to Cincinnati, there wasn't concern so much as a notion of "oh well, no Notre Dame in the Playoff conversations". Not to go all NOT SO FAST on everyone, but, well. Not so fast. I still think it's incredibly unlikely the Irish make it, although I'll tell you what — would have been a heck of a year for them to have a conference championship under their belts, don't you think? But it's far from impossible.

But it'll be easier said than done. Last year, Notre Dame used a dominant defense and a patient, persistent, grinding offensive attack to wear down the Tar Heels. But the defense was the unit that kept North Carolina in the game. It didn't give the Irish anything easy. It will need to have that kind of inspired performance again, of course, but the UNC offense will have to show up too. It couldn't manage to find room to operate against the Irish a year ago, and even without Notre Dame's star safety Kyle Hamilton, it will be a difficult task to consistently run the ball and avoid Sam Howell getting sacked repeatedly.

What will be interesting to see out of North Carolina after their off week is what kind of mentality they come out with. This will be the first time all season that North Carolina is the underdog, or at least it feels that way even if it's not technically true. The Tar Heels labored under the weight of expectations earlier in the year; can Mack Brown convince them to play loose and see what happens? What else could they lose? Another football game that everyone expects them to lose anyway?

THIS GUY

Jeremiah Gemmel. If there's a player on North Carolina's roster that will likely have used the bye week wisely in a leadership role, it's definitely Gemmel. UNC's senior linebacker is trying to balance putting his own NFL-worthy tape out there with helping UNC's talented and young linebackers learn the ropes, so to speak. But he's UNC's second-leading tackler on the year with 38 and is tied for third in tackles for loss with 4.0, adding two pass breakups and a team-high six quarterback hurries. It's easy to look at a team not living up to expectations and blame its leadership or assume that the older players aren't delivering somehow, but Gemmel definitely is. UNC's offense is going to have to find a way to move the ball in this one, but UNC's defense has a lot to prove. The Tar Heels have only played one team this season worse than Notre Dame in yards per play, but that team beat them (Virginia Tech). To be fair, that seems like decades ago now for both teams and Virginia Tech has lost some players but the defense can't let up anything easy and needs to make plays. Last year against Notre Dame, Gemmel had four tackles and three quarterback hurries. He'll need to have a repeat performance at a minium, and certainly hope his teammates can come along with him.

HERE'S A GUY

Kyren Williams. Remember how we all wrung our hands at the start UNC's rushing offense had to the season? Well, Notre Dame's called and said hey, we're 122nd in yards per carry. There was, of course, hand-wringing in South Bend as well. Losing the threat of Ian Book as a runner and a passer at the quarterback spot hurt the Irish's rushing attack, as you might imagine. Williams had 15 or more carries in 10 out of Notre Dame's 12 games a year ago and had more than 20 plenty of times, but he didn't crack the 20-carry mark this year until last week's win over USC. The senior tailback had such an inauspicious start to the season that it was easy for a casual viewer to forget he was there. But in the last two games, he's scored three touchdowns and carried it 44 times for 219 yards after managing 289 in Notre Dame's first five games combined. The conundrum early on was getting Wisconsin transfer quarterback Jack Coan to play well enough to where Brian Kelly didn't feel the need to insert his more mobile freshman quarterback. Coan has delivered, and so has Williams. Last year against UNC, Williams had 124 yards and was not tackled once for a loss on 23 attempts and two touchdowns, plus four catches for 20 yards and a score. He's going to be a focal point in this one, obviously.

NARRATIVES

North Carolina Win:

North Carolina Loss:

PREDICTION

Notre Dame, 31-20. Feels like about the right final. And 20 might be a little too optimistic, but we shall see.

LOUISVILLE (4-3, 2-2 ACC) AT N.C. STATE (5-2, 2-1 ACC)

Time: 7:30 p.m.
TV: ACC Network

#ANALYSIS

With the injury to Isaiah Moore, NC State is now not only down another captain but is also down four defensive starters. At a certain point, that matters, and it did last Saturday. It will even more so now against a Louisville team that will be the best offense NC State has seen this year by a fairly significant margin. Louisville is going to score. And so NC State's offense is going to have to keep pace. That means a good, balanced offensive attack (ideally, anyway) and finishing drives in the red zone. A few big plays might not hurt either! NC State ranks 83rd nationally in plays of 10 or more yards this year. Weirdly, though, NC State is 32nd in plays of 20 or more yards, 48th in 30+ and 41st in 40+. But those 10-19-yard plays can also help you out on a drive. Against FBS teams, NC State has scored touchdowns on just over 60% of its red-zone trips and is 3 of 7 on touchdowns in the red zone in its two losses (42.9%). We know NC State can maintain drives. It's finishing those drives that will be important in this one. Louisville is fifth nationally in yards per play in the month of October alone and 31st on the season. This one figures to be a bit of a shootout.

The good news on that front? Well, it's Louisville's defense. The Cardinals rank 97th in yards per play allowed this season. The Cardinals did hold Boston College to just 3.91 yards per play a week ago, a season-best mark, but Boston College's offense is ... well, we all saw it. It's struggling without Phil Jurkovec. Still, BC has a veteran offensive line and considering it's just the second time since 2018 that Louisville has held a Power 5 opponent below four yards per play, it's not nothing. But NC State has really only failed to *move* the football steadily against two teams so far: Mississippi State and Clemson. We won't talk about Mississippi State, but we all know Clemson is a good defense. NC State has averaged at least 6.2 yards per play against everyone else it has faced.

NC State does need to find some of those chunk plays to make its life easier, though. More good news: Louisville has been accommodating in that area! Louisville has allowed 115 plays of 10 or more yards and ranks 101st nationally in that category. No one expects NC State's defense to be dominant in this one, but what it does need to do is prevent explosive plays. It has done a great job of that all year, ranking 24th nationally in plays of 10 or more yards allowed. It has also allowed just three plays of 40 or more yards all season and none over 59 yards, something only 11 other teams have done. Louisville has 113 plays of more than 10 yards, though, and is the only team in the country with multiple 90-yard or more plays. It's going to be an interesting balancing act for Dave Doeren and his staff — you don't want to go three and out and put a tired defense on the field, but you also know you have to keep pace offensively and the longer drives go, the likelier mistakes become. He and offensive coordinator Tim Beck will have quite the balancing act here.

THIS GUY

Malik Cunningham. Being the successor to Lamar Jackson is an unenviable assignment. Especially when you're also a dual-threat quarterback. But Cunningham's stats are, if it makes sense, better than his reputation. He can be a little erratic, sure. But he's still completed over 63% of his passes the last two seasons and averaged over 8.0 yards per attempt. This year, though, he's taken his running ability to a new level, averaging 5.2 yards per carry and taking it in for 13 touchdowns. He had 18 over his first three seasons combined. He's not quite on pace with his passing TOUCHDOWN numbers, but I mean ... 21 total touchdowns, four interceptions? And after getting sacked eight times in the first five games, he hasn't been sacked in the last two. Plus, two years ago against NC State, he completed 13 of 20 passes for 242 yards and four touchdowns. NC State did hold him to nine yards on 16 rush attempts, though, and the defense will have to keep him contained as a running threat.

HERE'S A GUY

Devin Leary. It's pretty simple: it's on NC State's offense now. And it's on Leary. Well, to be fair to him, it's on he and his offense — including his wide receivers, which uncharacteristically had a ton of drops in the loss at Miami. So where is Leary with his trust in them? Or in himself? He's long been a pretty confident player, and he'll need every ounce of that. Up until this point, NC State has not lost a game on defense. (Miami might come close, but one could argue with the injury to Isaiah Moore and the offense not cashing in in the red zone, they share blame as well.) It has lost a game due to its offense (Mississippi State). Leary completed a season-low 57.1% of his passes against Miami, which again, the drops matter but he wasn't perfect. He doesn't have an interception since Week 2 this year and it'll likely have to stay that way. NC State can't afford any mistakes, and it has to cash in when it gets scoring opportunities. Two years ago against Louisville, Leary completed 24 of 44 passes for 243 yards in the loss. He also ran 12 times (for just 23 yards), and that's another dimension to his game that could come in handy. NC State can make plays against this defense. But it has to MAKE the plays. This kind of analysis is why they pay me the big bucks.

NARRATIVES

NC State Win:

NC State Loss:

PREDICTION

NC State, 34-31. I ... felt a little iffy about last week's game against Miami and I went against my gut. I definitely feel iffy about this one. But it's at home, and NC State has shown its resilience time and time again over the last few seasons. I ... think it will again? I think?

Last week: 0-1 (0-1 ACC)
Overall: 12-9 (6-6 ACC)