Brownlow's GIFs: Penultimate weekend lacks pizzazz for UNC, NC State
Posted November 19, 2021 12:47 a.m. EST
NC State lost the opportunity to control the Atlantic Division race with the heartbreaking loss at Wake Forest last week, but all is not lost. Wake's remaining schedule is much tougher than NC State's. Wake has two road games at Clemson and Boston College while NC State gets to host Syracuse and North Carolina. All NC State has to do to give itself a chance is win its remaining two games. And it starts with a Syracuse team that is capable of making you sweat a little, or at least it used to be. Meanwhile in Chapel Hill, a week before UNC's season-ending matchup with the Wolfpack, they are hosting FCS Wofford, a team that is not even one of the good ones at the FCS level. Sam Howell, whether he plays or not, will be on the field with his team in some capacity for Senior Day festivities and on the field at Kenan Stadium as a member of the team for the last time, almost certainly. But considering he's a little dinged up, we're not likely to see much of him. Guess we'll all just have to wait when things get really good around here next Friday night.
Let's get to the GIFs!
WOFFORD (1-9) AT NORTH CAROLINA (5-5, 3-4 ACC)
Time: 12 p.m.
TV: RSN
#ANALYSIS
I mean, there doesn't need to be a whole lot here. Wofford is not good. As you can see, I'm not even picking players for this one. No offense to the Terriers, but I'm still not over the whole Brenton Bersin thing. Not their fault. I do love Wofford basketball. I've already gone too far off topic. To be fair to the Terriers here, they beat Elon in their season opener and three of their losses have come to (ranked) FCS teams, and two of those three were by one score. Four of Wofford's losses were by one score, in fact, but things have been a bit more ... lopsided as of late, with Wofford losing 45-14 to Mercer and 41-21 to Western Carolina. So to sum up: Wofford is not your frisky FCS opponent. This ... should not be a close game for long.
Even though I'm not going to break down players to watch here, with Sam Howell's status in doubt, it'll be interesting to see what the QB2 battle looks like. Because it'll eventually be for QB1. It's been Jacolby Criswell all year, but there's been plenty of buzz about Drake Maye. I'm not sure what, if anything, it means that he hadn't supplanted Criswell as the year has gone along, but this will be a peek into Carolina's future at quarterback. Howell will be going through Senior Day festivities, and barring something insane, he'll move on to the NFL after the season ends. Mack Brown has said this week that he's going to rotate the two quarterbacks assuming Howell doesn't play (and I mean, why would he?). Even if Howell can go, he's not likely to play for long. Criswell is the more experienced quarterback of the two, while Maye has more star power on his side. Both were 4-star recruits, though. Maye hasn't played yet this year, although he was impressive at times in the spring game. Carolina hasn't been in many games that would warrant a backup quarterback appearance, but Criswell has completed both of his pass attempts for 54 yards and a touchdown and he ran the ball twice for two yards.
So, you know, you'll see a lot of both of them. In a blowout UNC win. End of analysis.
NARRATIVES
North Carolina Win:
North Carolina Loss:
PREDICTION
North Carolina, 59-10.
SYRACUSE (5-5, 2-4 ACC) AT NO. 20 N.C. STATE (7-3, 4-2 ACC)
Time: 4 p.m.
TV: ACC Network
#ANALYSIS
NC State no longer controls its own destiny. But do any of us, really? That's probably more of a philosophical question. Syracuse, though, entered November just one win away from bowl eligibility with three games left. Technically, they controlled their own destiny too. Last week, they went to Louisville — their only unranked opponent left on the schedule — and lost 41-3. It's one thing to lose to Louisville. It's another to lose ... like that. So which Syracuse will we see? The frisky one, or ... whatever that was? Syracuse's previous biggest defeat had been a 10-point loss to Rutgers. Now the Big Ten gets to claim supremacy over the state of New York. Thanks for nothing, Syracuse.
Anyway, Syracuse's previous friskiness might be somewhat muted this time around as it's ... less than an ideal matchup. The Orange's stellar rushing attack will have to contend with an NC State defense that is the best against the run that Syracuse has seen all year. This is also the best rushing offense NC State has seen, but the list of teams ahead of Syracuse is short as the Orange are fifth nationally in rushing. But Syracuse isn't too bad against the run either, and NC State hasn't really been able to run the football lately. That means it could come down to a battle of quarterbacks, and no offense to Garrett Shrader, but I don't love that for him as Syracuse is 121st nationally in passing yards per game. Syracuse has a combined 110 yards through the air in the last two games. No one told me that Paul Johnson took another job! I kid because I love.
Syracuse also has a capable pass rush, and that's really where NC State's offensive line will need to show up. NC State has only allowed 17 sacks all year, and they'll have to keep Leary clean. I'm not an offensive coordinator, but one thing NC State can't have happen again is a slow start. It's been an issue offensively some, and it was against Wake. The defense got stop after stop of the Deacs' potent offense, only to see the offense give it back and/or fail to score (or both). The offense woke up in the second half, but it would behoove the Wolfpack to start early and start well.
THIS GUY
Sean Tucker. Syracuse, as we've gone over, really has no credible passing threat. And Tucker is their best offensive weapon. In spite of that, he's really only been stymied twice — 54 yards against Rutgers and 95 against Louisville. For Tucker, who's hit the 100-yard mark in every other game, that qualifies as a stop. Tucker is third nationally in rushing and has also caught 17 passes for 239 yards and two touchdowns. He "only" has 11 touchdowns on the ground, but it feels low somehow as he averages a robust 6.19 yards per carry. He's going to be the best back NC State's defense has seen, but to be fair, there are only two players ranked above him in the entire country. The next-best back NC State has seen is Boston College's Pat Garwo, who it held to 50 yards on 11 attempts. Louisville's Jalen Mitchell and Malik Cunningham both rank in the top 100 nationally and they combined for 31 attempts and 145 yards, which is fine but Cunningham had like 100 more on the ground BY HIMSELF against Duke this week, so. Anyway, all you need to know about Tucker is he put up 157 yards rushing on Clemson's defense. He can be dangerous. NC State needs to make sure he isn't too dangerous.
HERE'S A GUY
Devin Leary. How good would NC State's offense be if it could run the ball even a little? Alas, it cannot, and so Leary leading the nation's 19th-ranked passing attack — ahead of North Carolina's, by the way — has to settle for the nation's 53rd-ranked offense as a result. NC State seemed to understand its own limitations against Wake Forest so well last week that it had Leary attempting FIFTY-NINE passes, a career-high (duh, I guess, but sheesh). His 6.9 yards per attempt, though, was his lowest mark since the win over Clemson. Wake Forest's defense ... is not Clemson's. And after his only interception since September 18 coming on an end-of-half Hail Mary against Florida State, Leary threw two interceptions against the Deacs. The loss is not on Leary, obviously. The game is not close without him, and he's being asked to do a lot right now. But he's up for the challenge, and he'll have to bring back his mistake-free ways against Syracuse to help his team finish strong.
NARRATIVES
NC State Win:
NC State Loss:
PREDICTION
NC State, 37-13. Syracuse maybe fights for, like, a half.
