Brownlow's GIFs: The ACC playing against its own harmful tendencies will be the most intriguing matchup of the weekend

By Lauren Brownlow, WRALSportsFan columnist/reporter

I have to start this GIFtastic preview with an important PSA: the game between Wake Forest and North Carolina on Saturday is NOT an ACC game. It will not factor into the conference standings for either team. Please try not to forget this.

UNC started the season at No. 10. After beating the Tar Heels at home in the opener, Virginia Tech rose up the rankings for a bit by virtue of that and good enough wins in the non-conference, plus a close loss at West Virginia. But since the Hokies only just snapped a Power 5 losing streak of four games with its win over Georgia Tech on the road last week, suffice it to say their time in the top 25 did not last long. Their win was against Georgia Tech, a team that took Clemson to the bring (and nearly out of the top 25) AFTER having lost to Northern Illinois earlier in the season, then beat UNC to take them out of the top 25, only to to 1-3 since with the only win coming over Duke. Syracuse lost to Florida State and then nearly beat Wake Forest in overtime the next week, so not quite a ruiner but they tried. FSU lost to Jacksonville State at home and then proceeded to knock off UNC and Syracuse later, once they remembered they had Jordan Travis on their team.

And we'd be remiss not to talk about Miami as the destroyers of all things ACC. The Hurricanes started the season in the top 14, then lost to Alabama (understandable!) and Michigan State (more understandable than before), only to narrowly lose their starting quarterback, push Virginia and UNC to the brink in close losses only to actually beat the league's two ranked teams in consecutive weeks (NC State and Pitt).

What's funny to me about this is that the notorious ruiners of football season in the ACC are in the position to *be* ruined this year. How many times did NC State knock off a higher-ranked team, only to lose the next week? (To be fair, that's not a Dave Doeren thing, but still.) How many times did Pitt beat a team it shouldn't have? Or Wake? Now, it could happen to them. The traditional spoilers could be spoiled.

Now, the only thing that can happen for the league's three College Football Playoff top 25 teams (one in the AP poll, but I'll use the CFP rankings) this week is something bad. Hard to gain a lot out of winning at Florida State if you're NC State, although it might put the Wolfpack back in the AP top 25. Pitt certainly will gain nothing winning at Duke, especially if it's by less than like three scores. Wake Forest could stand to gain by winning at North Carolina, but I'm sure the CFP committee folks will just insist UNC isn't that good anyway and is below .500, ignoring what team got them to below .500.

Either way, though, this weekend should be fun. A rematch of a great quarterback duel from a few years ago coupled with a brand-new matchup of quarterbacks with plenty at stake? Yes, please.

(Also, yes, I picked all quarterbacks for my names to know. I don't care.)

Let's get to the GIFs!

NO. 9 WAKE FOREST (8-0) AT NORTH CAROLINA (4-4)

Time: 12 p.m.
TV: ABC

#ANALYSIS

You might have heard that Wake Forest has not been respected enough as a Playoff contender this week. You might also have heard that North Carolina is actually FAVORED in this game in spite of being .500. Those two things might be connected. But I'm nothing if not a trend follower. And as I laid out in the intro to this column, the theme of this ACC football season has been spoiling it for someone else. ACC football is like crabs in a bucket this year. Wake Forest has managed to hang on to the edge of that bucket by the tip of its claw (get it? Clawson!) in spite of the rest of the league pulling at it hard to join them in that bucket. But there's still a lot of season to go, right?

I am certain of only one thing the remainder of this season: UNC is going to ruin something good for one of its in-state rivals this year. In fact, if we're casting in-state spoilers, UNC gets the top mark for that this year. Imagine what Miami's ranking would be without the loss to UNC? Or Virginia's? And then the Tar Heels can't even beat FSU at home and get dominated by Georgia Tech on the road? Come on. NC State beating Clemson wasn't playing spoiler; Clemson is who we thought they were. But UNC is just good enough to play the role of spoiler and just bad enough to turn around and blow it the next week.

But there's actual football to discuss here too, obviously. One of the things that had Dave Clawson all hot and bothered this week was the knocks on Wake's defense. And there's some fairness to that: Wake ranks higher in yards per play allowed on defense than Oklahoma, for example, and for all the yards Wake might allow, the Deacs are just middle of the pack nationally in scoring defense. Yards are cool and all but if you can't turn them into points, does it matter? The problem becomes, of course, that North Carolina can absolutely do that, especially at home. But the good news for Wake's defense is it's not like it's untested to this point. Sometimes defenses just aren't that good, and that's it. But Wake has played six straight opponents in the top 79 of total offense and has four top-53 opponents. It's not as if they're playing teams that can't move the ball and still allowing a ton of yards. And I'd add the fact that they shut Duke down, but, well ... so did UNC.

And speaking of the Tar Heels, sure. They could score enough points to win this game, which seems likely to be a high-scoring affair the way it was last year. Part of the reason for that is Wake's offense is elite. The other reason is that UNC's defense is ... not. Notre Dame's offense was fairly pedestrian coming into last week's game and even as the Tar Heels were able to score on the Irish, the defense simply could not get a stop. But last year against Wake, Carolina also could not get a stop. Until it could. Wake scored on seven of its first 10 drives (nine if you count kneeling before the half) and did not score again from the 6:56 mark of the third quarter until 57 seconds remained in the game. The Deacs punted four times and turned it over on downs once. Carolina had to score on five of its last six drives to win the game after going down 45-24 midway through the third quarter. But they did win, and it's a game that showed the flaws UNC had (and has) and also a game that haunts Wake Forest, because it's one they should have had.

I think the running game will be big in this one. Whichever quarterback's offense can establish the run consistently I think will be the team that wins the game, unless one of the two gets super turnover-prone. Because a functioning run game will give these two defenses too much to have to worry about, and these quarterbacks are too good not to make them pay.

THIS GUY

Sam Hartman. I'm not going to be too hard on Hartman or Clawson for the way last year's game played out. But when you have a 21-point lead and about the same amount of game time remaining (technically 22 minutes, but whatever), in theory, you should hold on to that. Instead, UNC cut it to 14, Wake went 3 and out on two of its next five drives, four and out on another and three and out after a first down via pass interference penalty. The longest drive in that stretch was 2:09 and it was five plays. There was ... a lot of passing, which, again, I get it! It's not broken, no need to fix! Don't go into a shell! But one would think that using just a bit more clock there might have made sense? Either way, those empty possessions were more than enough in that game.

Through three quarters against North Carolina, Hartman was 22 of 28 passing for 330 yards and three touchdowns, adding 28 yards on the ground and another score. In the final quarter, he was still 7 of 12 for 71 yards and a touchdown but much of it came late. He's got to be as good as that throughout. Interestingly, as much attention is paid to Wake's defense, the best defense the offense and Hartman have faced this season is Syracuse (14th nationally) and it has faced exactly two top-50 defenses (one is North Carolina). But the good news for Hartman and the Deacs is that North Carolina is neither of those, ranking 90th. Still, Hartman has to make good decisions.

He mostly does, and that's why Wake is where it is. It helps that he has an excellent group of receivers to help him, and that entire group will have to show up in this one. But Hartman is averaging nearly 10 yards an attempt while passing for 22 touchdowns to just three interceptions. He's really, really good, and just like last year, he'll be a handful for the Tar Heels.

HERE'S A GUY

Sam Howell. The way we talk about UNC's preseason Heisman hopeful is just ... it's almost like no one can talk about him without the take being red-hot. "He's having a terrible season! His draft stock will never recover!" Well, I mean:

But then of course, an ESPN headline listed Howell as still wanting the Heisman, and the internet went insane. I mean, I'd love a Heisman too, but I'm not getting it, and Sam isn't either. Or All-ACC, for that matter. But that doesn't mean that he's suddenly slipped into being a bad quarterback. He's having to carry this offense this year, and that is precisely what he has done until some of the other elements were ready and able to come along and help. It's what he had to do last year against Wake Forest when his defense couldn't stop a drain. But at least in the Wake game, he had help. He had Javonte Williams and Michael Carter combining for 178 yards and his receivers making insane plays for him. He finished with 550 yards passing, six touchdowns and 21 rushing yards with another score against the Deacs. That's ... pretty insane.

This year, anything positive for that UNC offense has largely been centered around Howell's play. And the way he played against Notre Dame was as close to perfection as we've seen from him all season against a good team. Sure, he "only" passed for one touchdown and had a pick. But he averaged 11 yards per attempt *at Notre Dame*, completing a season-high 77.4% of his passes and oh yeah, also ran 102 yards and a score. He put them in position to win that game, had the defense been able to do ... anything. It was a vintage Howell performance. He has at least 98 yards rushing in three straight games now and in five games this year. He's added that dimension to hsi game and he's done it all by having one reliable receiver. UNC's offense is not as dangerous as last year's because its weapons are not as dangerous. But Howell still is. His season did not begin and end with the Virginia Tech game.

NARRATIVES

Wake Forest Win: The CFP committee, probably:

Wake Forest Loss: To lose an undefeated season on a loss to UNC?! That would be too much for Wake fans.

North Carolina Win:

North Carolina Loss:

PREDICTION

North Carolina, 47-39. I just have a weird feeling about this one. It's less about North Carolina and far more about the weird ACC this year, to be fair, but still.

NO. 25 PITTSBURGH (6-2, 3-1 ACC) AT DUKE (3-5, 0-4 ACC)

Time: 12 p.m.
TV: ACC Network

#ANALYSIS

I mean ... is there any point in doing this? There doesn't feel like one. That's not to say that something crazy couldn't happen in this game. We all know better. But from what we've seen from Duke the last few weeks, is there any reason to believe that? The way Duke started this season was a pleasant surprise. But it's really the way that the wheels have fallen off, right? Not just that they are off. I mean, to be fair, when you're in a car and its wheels fall off, you probably don't care much about how. But no one thought Duke would be here because of an inability to score points or move the football consistently, something that is normally David Cutcliffe's specialty and something Duke did quite well earlier in the season. Since starting out the season 3-1 and moving the ball pretty well, Duke is now 0-4 in the ACC and has scored 7, 27, 0 and 7 points in said losses against defenses that all rank 83rd or worse in the country in yards per play allowed and three that rank 81st or worse in scoring defense. We knew Duke's defense was going to be bad. And it is. But the Duke offense suddenly deciding to stink is a new wrinkle. Oh, and Pitt's defense is going to be the best Duke has seen in both categories. So while you can't usually trust Pitt, is there any meaningful reason to trust that Duke has anything good left in its proverbial tank? Bull City Coordinator wrote this excellent summary of why Duke is where it is right now after last week's game, and what stuck out most to me as something I hadn't previously considered is Duke's total lack of energy and emotion. A lot of teams going through this might have guys throwing something on the sideline or getting into the face of a teammate, or even coaches getting visibly angrier. That's never really been Cutcliffe's thing, but they are human, right? Why does there seem to be this resignation to their fate? Where is the FIGHT?

Obviously, Pitt got dealt a big emotional blow last week and again, you can't trust Pitt. This ACC season has also been full of upsets that make no sense. But if Duke had any fight left in it, wouldn't we have seen it by now?

THIS GUY

Kenny Pickett. Pickett might be my favorite non-Triangle area quarterback to watch play, and I've felt that way for quite some time. My favorite quarterbacks are skilled, sure, but they have at least moment of "no no no YES" in them every game and they're insanely competitive. They're also at least vaguely insane. They will do things that make no sense to the rest of us mere mortals for the sake of trying to gain a few extra yards. They have that extra competitive fire inside of them that sets them apart from others. Pickett is that way. You just know he's going to do everything he can to make a play. And yes, I'm doing to do the indie band thing here and insist that I was into Pickett before he started getting all the Heisman love. But the love is well-deserved:

This year, Pickett has averaged 9.2 yards per attempt while completing nearly 70% of his passes and has 26 touchdowns to three interceptions. Two of those interceptions, though, came last week against Miami's young but talented defense. Of course, he also had 519 yards passing and three touchdowns, so it's not as if he didn't carry his weight. He's also running the ball a lot, but not too much, getting 185 yards and three more touchdowns on 64 attempts. The only game he was in negative rushing yards was the loss to Miami (-10). He's not going to get like 20 yards a carry usually, but he can scoot a little. Two years ago in a win over Duke, Pickett completed 29 of 48 passes for 268 yards, three touchdowns and two picks and did have negative rushing yards in that one (-17) and was sacked three times. If Pickett plays even half as well as he's capable of playing, it will take a complete meltdown by Pitt's defense to even make this competitive.

HERE'S A GUY

Gunnar Holmberg. I'll admit it — I like Holmberg as a quarterback. And obviously he has a great name. But after watching him play some in previous years and with the way he started this year, I really thought that while Duke would lose a lot, the Blue Devils would put up points between Holmberg, returning receivers and Mataeo Durant at tailback. And early on, they did that. But .... well. Holmberg's slipping started a bit later than Duke's in general did, but his last two games have been ... really bad. In Holmberg's first six games, Duke was 3-3 overall and Holmberg had completed 132 of 182 passes (72.5%) for 1,616 yards (8.9 per attempt), throwing for six touchdowns to four interceptions. Duke scored at least 27 points in all but one of those games. But in the last two games, both against mediocre at best pass defenses, Holmberg has completed 30 of 52 passes (57.7%) for 244 yards (4.7 per attempt), no touchdowns and two picks. Even his rushing numbers have gone down — he had 189 yards and six touchdowns in Duke's first six games on the ground and has two yards on 10 attempts and no touchdowns in the last two. How much of this is on Holmberg is unclear. But Duke's got to figure out a way to get him back on track if it wants to have any shot on Saturday, and Holmberg has to find a way to help rally his team somehow.

NARRATIVES

Duke Win:

Duke Loss:

PREDICTION

Pittsburgh a million, Duke far less. OK, not literally. But kind of.

NO. 19 NC STATE (6-2, 3-1 ACC) AT FLORIDA STATE (3-5, 2-3 ACC)

Time: 4 p.m.
TV: ACC Network

#ANALYSIS

I realize that on paper, this game seems not all that competitive. But let's not make the mistake plenty of others in the ACC have made this year and go assuming things. Florida State is not as bad as its record would indicate, at least not the way it's playing lately. The last time these two teams played was last season, and weirdly, neither of them had the quarterbacks that will start in this game. Both will in this one, and that could change things. (We'll get to those two shortly.)

But in reality, even with FSU's improvement, NC State is still the better team. And the Seminoles lost a game that probably took a lot out of them the week before against Clemson. Of course, I remember saying back when FSU came to Chapel Hill that getting their first win would take a burden off of them and they wouldn't play as hard, so what do I know? But it was a tough one for them and snapped a three-game winning streak, all while FSU was in position to get the win on the road. How much will they have left in the tank?

NC State is going to have its hands full on defense, but other than maybe 1-2 games this year, the defense has held its own. And it helps some that Florida State is a bit one-dimensional offensively, even if that one dimension was a good one. Still, the Seminoles were able to find some success throwing the football last week and NC State had better hope that when it keys on shutting down the running game, that passing success doesn't happen again. But the defense is not the concern. It's the offense. Or the running game, more precisely. NC State is 56th nationally in yards per play offensively, which feels lower than it should be considering how well its quarterback is playing and how much experience it has. But the rushing offense is 60th and the passing attack is 30th. UNC lost two NFL running backs last year and ranks 20th in rushing offense (to be fair, Sam Howell's new rushing ability helps, but just to put it in perspective).

NC State is fortunate that its 44 yards on 24 attempts against Louisville didn't cost them the game. The only game they performed worse on the ground was Mississippi State, and we all remember how that went. NC State's rushing numbers aren't awful — 4.4 per rush, over 100 yards in all but two games — but they've been over 3.8 yards per carry against a Power 5 team just once (in the loss to Miami). And the running game has a total of one touchdown against Power 5 teams this year. You don't have to have multiple dimensions offensively, of course, if you can move the ball via the pass. But if you're going to run the ball some, you'd like those plays ideally to be more successful and take pressure off of your quarterback and open up your playbook a little. That will have to happen in this game.

THIS GUY

Devin Leary. Speaking of quarterbacks who have to do it all, hello Devin! Was it a little disconcerting last week to see NC State's offense struggle to score for so long against a bad Louisville defense, at home? Sure. But once Leary got it going, there was no turning back. And NC State and its coaches have to trust that Leary can do that. He does not have an interception since Week 2 now and has averaged at least 7.0 yards per pass attempt since the Louisiana Tech game. As injuries have mounted on NC State's defense, he's played the role of the guy that bails out the team over and over again. He was hurt for last year's game against Florida State, but as the offense has struggled to run the ball consistently as of late, Leary has just stepped up his play that much more. Florida State isn't great on defense but it does have some talent. NC State's offensive line has to keep Leary clean, and Leary has to make good decisions with the ball and continue to make plays when they're there. And I wonder how long before we see NC State's offensive playcallers really let their hair down, so to speak, and just let Leary go to work from the jump? It would be interesting to see how that went. And by interesting I might even say advisable, since at some point you can't rely on your defense to keep you in a game for three quarters when it has so many important injuries.

HERE'S A GUY

Jordan Travis. You might have seen the start to this Florida State season versus how the Seminoles are playing now and wondered to yourself, what changed? Well, Travis did. He didn't play a ton in the first four games of the season and FSU started 0-4. As much as we all love McKenzie Milton and his story, though, he was not going to be able to quarterback this offense for it to be successful because the offensive line isn't good enough yet. Travis and his mobility? He is. He's not an amazing passer, so that isn't ideal. But he has a good completion percentage when he does throw (63%) and is so dangerous as a runner that it makes FSU considerably more difficult to stop. But if he's going to have to pass it a ton, it's usually not the best recipe for FSU. The Seminoles are 1-8 when Travis has fewer than 70 rushing yards and 5-2 when he breaks that mark. NC State will have to make Travis beat them with his arm and if he does, just tip their hat.

NARRATIVES

NC State Win:

NC State Loss:

PREDICTION

NC State, 31-20. This felt dangerous to me for the Wolfpack. But then I asked my colleague Joe Giglio about his take on the game. He said he felt like FSU had a "pour one out" type of loss agianst Clemson last week. I tend to agree. Give me the Wolfpack.