Brownlow's GIFs: The Triangle's ACC teams may say goodbye to some familiar faces after this final weekend

By Lauren Brownlow, WRALSportsFan columnist/reporter

As, the residual humidity of the summer and early fall give way to the cool, crisp fall air, so too does the college football season get us here: rivalry week.

That's right people, I'm talking about Miami at Duke!

Okay, so I will at least mention that game, but ... yeah. My first instinct with this game was to assume that UNC would win, just because it didn't make sense and a lot of things haven't made sense in the ACC this year.

It's UNC at NC State time, and I do not know whom I need to speak to in order to convince them to wear blue and red when they play each other OR where I send my feedback note that this game needs a trophy. It feels like we're closer to the latter than to the former, but come on, people. We've got lots of things across this state that are special to all of us. Let's do it.

Dave Doeren is 4-4 against UNC since he became head coach, but Mack Brown is 2-0 against him since his return to Chapel Hill and 23-1 in his last 24 games vs. UNC's in-state opponents. Winning these types of games does matter to him a lot, as it does to Doeren. And that's what makes it fun, right?

A lot is at stake here. Well, at least for NC State. They could become NC State's first team to avoid a home loss since 1986. They could stay alive in the Atlantic Division race, then get out a bowl of steaming clam chowder the next morning and root for Boston College against Wake Forest. If they don't take care of business Friday night, though, it won't matter. Let's get to the GIFs!

FRIDAY

NORTH CAROLINA (6-5, 3-4 ACC) AT NO. 24 N.C. STATE (8-3, 5-2 ACC)

Time: 7 p.m.
TV: ESPN

#ANALYSIS

You can throw out the record books when these two teams get together. I mean, that's the old adage anyway. But I honestly do not remember the last time UNC beat NC State when the Wolfpack is supposed to win, although it has the other way around (NC State upsetting UNC). But if we were to be playing this game out in a simulation before the game itself starts, there's not a whole lot of evidence that this one could go UNC's way.

UNC is winless on the road this year, although it did get blown out by the worst road team they saw (Georgia Tech) and played the best road game all year against the best road opponent they've had (Notre Dame), so go figure. But when the Tar Heels run it reasonably well all season, they've generally also won the game.

Running it matters a bit less to NC State, of course, because they've struggled to run the ball all year and here they are. And on the defensive side, NC State is allowing fewer yards per carry in losses than in wins, and that tracks as you sometimes see NC State's offense need time to get into the game. Can they afford that in this one? They probably could, but if it's a back-and-forth high-scoring affair? That's the kind of game UNC would rather play anyway. They know at least they'll stay in it. IF it's a defensive struggle with fewer and fewer possessions, UNC likely doesn't have much of a shot.

This weird stat is worth mentioning, though — NC State is actually in the top 3 nationally in yards per carry allowed in losses. In wins, they still hold opponents to below 4.0 yards per attempt, but slip down the national rankings to 87th. In home games, UNC is No. 6 nationally in rushing offense. On the road, that drops to 87th, where the Tar Heels average just 3.7 yards per carry compared to over 6 at home. And overall in wins vs. losses, UNC averages nearly two more yards per carry in its wins compare to losses. Whether it's via a banged-up Sam Howell or a Ty Chandler or both, UNC is going to have to figure out a way to run it.

Turnovers are going to be important, too. UNC's defense is just not equipped right now to get stops consistently unless there are a few turnovers thrown into the mix. NC State is +8 in its wins in turnover margin (12 gained, four lost) and -3 in losses (three gained, six lost). UNC has a similar split: a +7 in wins (11 gained, four lost) to -7 in five losses (two gained, nine lost). The absolute last thing either of these teams want to go is to get into a turnover exchange of some sort.

Overall, UNC is 75th in TD percentage in the red zone, but in losses, that oddly improved as UNC scored at least something on all but two of their 11 red-zone trips. But what sticks out to me about that? Well, probably the fact that in five whole losses ,that UNC offense only reached the red zone 11 times? That's not great. Carolina can score points from almost anywhere on the field, or it's felt that way the last few years, but in the red zone, things get more difficult. Especially against a team in NC State that, in wins, has been really good in the red zone.

NC State ranks 34th overall on the season in touchdown percentage,, but in wins, their numbers are crazy good: 31 red-zone trips, 23 touchdowns. And scores on 30 of the 31 trips. That seems good! UNC and NC State could in theory be friends over their issues in the red zone In losses, though? NC State has scored on eight of 11 trips, but just 45.5% of those scores were touchdowns.

NC State, weirdly, was fortunate against Wake Forest. Before you at me, at least read it first. But the defense held Wake Forest down for so long, and that's one of the more dynamic offenses in the country. UNC has that inside of it, somewhere, but this defense is going to have step up in a big way. Like, a BIG way. And the offense needs to avoid those turnovers we talked about and score when it gets into the red zone. Every time would probably be best, if you're UNC? Can't leave anything to chance.

One element of this game that I've found oddly intriguing is how NC State's coaching staff on offense will balance the needs of this game plan to keep the ball away from North Carolina while also wanting to be aggressive offensively. It's easy for us common folk to say that from the comfort of our couch "eating chips" as Doeren said the other day, but there's some truth to that. Yes, they get paid well to do their jobs. But can you imagine if that was your job and you had to listen to idiots try to tell you how you screwed up and you have to continue to be polite to your own fans?

All I'm saying is this (and we'll get to him momentarily) — UNC has gotten off to some hot starts in games this season before and faded, sometime winning those games and sometimes losing them, depending in large part on who decides to show up again for the fourth quarter. But UNC should still do what it can start strong. How many points will UNC put up? Maybe not that many. But you're going to be sweating it out in the fourth if you're NC State and only up, say, 13 points or so, That's not what you want. And you don't want to get behind early if you're NC State either, because then you'll have no choice but to almost exclusively air it out the rest of the way. Devin Leary is an excellent quarterback, but it's asking a lot to make him the sole generator of said offense.

Keeping it close early would be ideal for both teams, really. State will still be able to run the ball (whether or not it works, at least UNC has to respect it), and UNC will have time to get it going. It's not difficult to foresee a game in which NC State takes the air out of the ball, uses every second of the play clock, then gets a 1-2 score lead and lets its defensive front try to get Sam Howell on the ground. They'll definitely have to be ready for him as a runner, but my guess is NC State plays a bit of keep-away. You still have to get first downs to do that, though, and so Tim Beck is going to have some decisions to make. Or they're already made, I guess. I'd hope he's not game-planning today, too.

Also worth watching for both teams: NC State has been pretty good right before the half in all phases, including scoring seven touchdowns with less than a minute to go in the first half. Three times, those end-of-half touchdowns gave NC State a lead. Miami was the only team NC State did that against and lost the game. UNC has had some real defensive struggles at the end of a half, though, and they're going to have to figure out something if NC State gets the ball on a drive where it can get cranking towards the end of a half.

This game will give NC State its best opponent in yards per play in North Carolina; the Tar Heels are 9th nationally (by the way, they did this without two of the best backs in school history and seemingly only one receiver that can be counted upon to catch the football, so no, I don't think Phil Longo is getting FIRED. Who knows, but it would seem crazy!). But the moment I began to turn around on the Wolfpack and become a full believer again was actually when I saw what they did to Louisville's dangerous offense. Now if the offense can bring the same energy for all four quarters, NC State should be fine.

THIS GUY

Sam Howell. It hit me quickly the other day that this is very likely going to be Howell's final game in a UNC game. But, you might say, they have a bowl game! And maybe he does play in that. But I kind of doubt it. And besides, it'll be a good way to get Jacolby Criswell and Drake Maye some significant playing time against a (likely) Power 5 opponent. Howell is six passes away from passing Philip Rivers and into second place on the ACC's top career passing touchdowns list. But just one more touchdown pass and he'll be in third place by himself, passing Trevor Lawrence and Deshaun Watson.

Howell is not going to get six passing touchdowns on Friday night. But one thing is for sure: he's going to do everything in his power to try to carry his team. He has to know in all likelihood that he's not playing in a bowl game. And he's 2-0 against NC State so far, completing 41 of 62 passes for 653 yards, four touchdowns and a pick in two games. Two years ago in Raleigh, he went 23 of 31 for 403 yards.

I could list all of Howell's accomplishments. If you want, hit up that Google or just go to UNC's official site and look at their game notes. NC State might feel it has something to prove. But Howell will feel that way too, I think. I mean, people keep asking "what's wrong with Sam Howell?!" as if they ... can't see that he has exactly one reliable receiver and he's had to become a true dual-threat quarterback in one off-season just so this team can move the ball behind a not great o-line? And besides, with two of the best receivers in the country, he completed 68.1% of his passes compared to 63.4% this year. He still has 22 touchdowns as opposed to 29, but he also has another nine on the ground and has been over 100 yards five times. Howell had 181 yards rushing *in his career* coming into this season, and he already has 728. It's remarkable what he's done.

And oh by the way, Howell is 157 of 240 in the fourth quarter in his career, throwing for 2,299 yards and scoring 29 touchdowns in the fourth quarter alone (23 passing, six rushing). If NC State is already up relatively comfortably, it likely won't be a huge issue. But NC State is going to have to be aware of what Howell can do.

HERE'S A GUY

Devin Leary. Speaking of passing Philip Rivers, Leary might have a real shot at it — or at least, at Rivers' single-season mark of 34 passing touchdowns. Leary has 31. And just five interceptions! Carolina is almost certainly crossing its collective fingers that the defense can manage to do what it did against Sam Hartman, baiting him into turnovers he doesn't usually commit. NC State is 7-1 this year when Leary and the offense average at least 7.0 yards per pass attempt and 1-2 when it does not.

Also, is anyone else at least a little surprised that Leary isn't getting more Heisman Trophy buzz? I'm not saying he could win it, but the dude has completed nearly 66% of his passes this year and has 31 touchdowns to five picks! His team is also 8-3! I love Kenny Pickett as much as anyone, but he has 36 touchdowns to six picks. It's a tough year to be a good quarterback in the ACC, though, as it is positively loaded with them. Maybe not enough was seen from him when healthy to give him at least some preseason hype that might have carried over? I don't know.

His head coach Dave Doeren is responsible with his words in the lead-up to the Carolina game. But the one comment he couldn't seem to help himself from saying he was glad this will be the first time in two years he's played UNC with his starting quarterback. Not to well actually him a bit, but Leary played in all but one quarter that day and no one else besides Leary threw a pass until into the fourth quarter. By then, it was already 34-10, UNC. I will certainly give him the 2020 season, although Bailey Hockman not better or worse than Leary in that game. Hockman did start in last year's meeting, but he was pulled for Finley and when he struggled, in came Hockman again. You could argue that the way he played in the second half helped springboard Hockman to success the rest of the way.

As long as Leary plays as mistake-free a brand of football as possible, NC State should be fine.

NARRATIVES

North Carolina Win:

North Carolina Loss:

NC State Win:

NC State Loss:

PREDICTION

NC State, 41-27. That feels about right to me, honestly. I do think UNC will score. I just don't know how they score *enough*, unless their defense has suddenly figured out ... everything.

SATURDAY

MIAMI (6-5, 4-3 ACC) AT DUKE (3-8, 0-7 ACC)

Time: 12:30 p.m.
TV: RSN

#ANALYSIS

I've covered a few football teams in my day that were just ... a special level of bad. But it's usually not the kind of bad that still leaves fans hope for the future, or at least not right away. And that's especially true if you're talking about lifelong Duke football fans. If David Cutcliffe decides to retire or Duke has to make a tough position, it's pretty likely that we don't see Cutcliffe on a sideline in Durham ever again. And it's not just one that's gone wrong. But the last couple of weeks, it's been remarkable to notice how little anyone seems to care. Oh, they CARE even if they don't show it. We all understand that. But we haven't seen someone yelling or screaming or getting into a teammate's face to hold them accountable. It's almost like ... they've gotten used to losing. And that's not good.

Duke is 82nd nationally in offense. Not exactly lighting the world on fire, of course, but it's difficult to imagine why their struggle to score in the red zone is a big thing. But it is as Duke is 122nd nationally out of 130 teams in scoring touchdowns in the red zone.

Miami, as we all know, did not give up on its season when it certainly could have. If the Canes somehow managed to lose to this Duke team, the former Miami players might end up catching a jet to Durham to bar Manny Diaz from getting on the bus.

NARRATIVES

Duke Win:

Duke Loss:

PREDICTION

Miami, 47-13. Gross.