Brownlow's GIFs: UNC, Duke both seek to begin their NCAA Tournament runs with a reset
Posted March 16, 2022 11:30 p.m. EDT
As Carolina and Duke prepare to begin their respective NCAA Tournament runs, no one can be sure what to expect from either team and for pretty different reasons. Carolina got it together in the latter half of the season against largely inferior competition, but can they beat a team at on or about their level in Marquette? Can they avoid a second straight first-round exit? And Duke hasn't been the same for probably longer than the UNC loss, but it has been a drastic change since then. The pressure has been a lot for this team, but they've had a week off now and time to reset. Can they come out focused and ready? Even if they don't, would a likely blowout win over an overmatched opponent be just what they need to get it going again? We'll see!
In the meantime, let's get to the GIFs!
THURSDAY
NO. 8 NORTH CAROLINA (24-9) VS. NO. 9 MARQUETTE (19-12)
Time: 4:30 p.m.
TV: TBS
#ANALYSIS
North Carolina should know better than anyone that it doesn't matter how well or poorly a team is playing coming into a matchup with them, and especially Marquette. Last year, Marquette came to the Smith Center in a hastily-scheduled makeup COVID game with a 10-12 record (losers of six of the eight games before) and didn't just beat Carolina, but dominated them. This season, Marquette has had a wild ride under first-year head coach Shaka Smart — an 8-2 start followed by a four-game losing streak, then seven straight wins, then a 4-6 stretch to end the year. As roller-coaster-ish as UNC's season has felt, the Tar Heels' longest losing streak is ... two games. They've won 12 of the last 15, and two of the losses were to the current NCAA Tournament field, even though both were by double digits. But it's that third loss, the one to Pitt, that lingers. It used to be unheard of that UNC would lose in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, but last year proved it can happen to anyone.
It's not an ideal 8-9 matchup for UNC, either. Marquette under Smart has understandably put more of a defensive emphasis on forcing turnovers. They're 136th nationally in that stat defensively, which is middle of the road, but it's been an issue for UNC at times on offense. More bad news? Marquette is deeper than UNC, letting its bench play 34.6% of its minutes to just 19.9% for UNC. Depth was an issue for UNC in its second game in two days at the ACC Tournament, and though the Tar Heels have had rest, their starters still see big minutes. The Golden Eagles are also 41st nationally in 2-point defense and 35th in block percentage.
But there is good news! Even if Carolina misses a lot of its 2-point tries, they should have an advantage on the offensive glass — and a significant one. Marquette ranks 306th nationally in defensive rebounding and 330th in offensive rebounding, but the defensive rebounding part is big. UNC isn't the offensive rebounding juggernaut it was in the Roy Williams era but they are still good at it, and they'll need to be good on the boards. UNC is 12-1 when it rebounds at least a third of its missed shots and 12-8 when it rebounds less than that. But at the end of the day, it's going to come down to defense for the Tar Heels. It's been the reason for their resurgence, and it's been their downfall in the disappointing or blowout losses. UNC is undefeated this year when it holds opponents to an effective field goal percentage below 51% and 5-9 when it allows better than that. So, you know, maybe defend some shots. That kind of analysis is why they pay me the big bucks, folks.
NAMES TO KNOW
Caleb Love. The adage for UNC used to be if Love played well, UNC would win. It's still arguably most true. UNC is 15-4 when Love has an offensive efficiency rating over 100 and 9-5 when he doesn't, so it's not a hard and fast rule. But there's no question that Love has played well in most of UNC's marquee wins this year. In six of UNC's nine wins over Ken Pom top-100 teams, Love has had an ORtg of at least 110. In the last four games, Love is on the best assist-turnover stretch of his career with 17 assists two two turnovers. Last season, he had just six games all year with one or fewer turnovers, and before the last four games, he'd had just seven this year. It's a reason UNC has been successful, to be sure. But even Love himself admits he's still mired in a shooting slump he'd like to get out of. He's been able to do that late in the last few games, but he's still shooting just 15 of 63 (23.8%) from the floor in that stretch and just 5 of 28 from 3, which is perhaps more concerning. Love can draw fouls and get to the line, but UNC will need all of the 3-point shooting it can get and Love will need to get going.
Justin Lewis. The Marquette freshman is a freshman in name only, having played 21 games for the Golden Eagles a year ago. One of them was not the UNC game. But the 6-7 forward has played plenty more this year, and played well, leading Marquette with 17.1 points and 7.9 rebounds per game. He's not an amazing shooter — 45.1% overall, 35.2% from 3 — but he shoots nearly 51% from 2-point range alone. And the fact that he's a stretch-4 type of player is a potential issue for UNC as Brady Manek has at times struggled to defend on the perimeter. Lewis is a solid rebounder but he also doesn't turn it over much and is a very good free throw shooter, so UNC has to be wary of foul trouble.
NARRATIVES
North Carolina Win:
North Carolina Loss: Searching for UNC fans that are mad after the win at Duke
PREDICTION
UNC, 77-71. It feels too obvious UNC would lose, right? Or does it not? I don't know anymore with this team.
FRIDAY
NO. 1 DUKE (28-6) VS. NO. 15 CAL STATE FULLERTON (21-10)
Time: 7:10 p.m.
TV: CBS
#ANALYSIS
What's wrong with Duke? Maybe nothing, of course. Or maybe everything. Regardless, and I realize this seems silly, but it's unlikely Duke will be threatened much in this game. So if nothing else, it could give them a chance for the one thing they haven't had since the UNC loss — a blowout win over an inferior opponent, just so they can prove to themselves they can still do it if nothing else. Why such confidence? Well, what do upset-minded teams need to be able to do? Shoot it, yes? Cal State Fullerton is 217th nationally in effective field-goal percentage and 182ndin 3-point shooting. A team that can threaten Duke needs to have shooters. The Titans have made defense their identity this season, and it's worked for them. They hold opponents to 31.4% from 3, 46.9% from 2 and block 13.3% of their missed shots, all figures that rank in the top 74 nationally. They do avoid fouls very well, posting the No. 2 defensive free-throw rate in the nation. It could be a snag if Duke can't get to the foul line. But ... I mean, let's just call this what it is. Fullerton has not seen a team like Duke this year. They haven't even faced a Power 5 opponent.
After the UNC loss, the one thing Duke showed over the course of the ACC Tournament was that it could make enough plays to beat teams it outmatched, and as the gap in talent narrowed, it showed in the scores against Syracuse, Miami and Virginia Tech. But Fullerton ranks like 60 spots below Syracuse. Duke might play poorly early, and maybe the mental spiral that results in that and the pressure of knowing it's Krzyzewski's last NCAA Tournament run catches up to them. But it would take ... well, it would take a lot for it to actually result in a loss.
NAMES TO KNOW
Trevor Keels. If Duke is going to get back on track, Keels will need to get back on track as well. Duke had won 12 of 13 going into the UNC game, and nine of those 10 wins came when freshman point guard Trevor Keels returned from injury. He didn't play lights out in every game, of course, but he did score in double figures in seven of the games and shot well in most and dishing out 29 assists to just 11 turnovers in that stretch. But in the last four games, Duke is 2-2 and Keels has shot 12 of 37 from the floor. And after going without a turnover in four straight games ending with the win over Syracuse in the ACC Tournament, he has seven assists to four turnovers in the last two games. Not a huge issue, of course, but Duke really needs Keels to become a player they can go to when they need a basket. He can be that guy, but he's struggled some lately.
E.J. Anosike. The 6-7 Tennessee transfer led the team in scoring in his final COVID year of eligibility, averaging 16.3 points and 7.7 rebounds. And he's done it efficiently, shooting nearly 54% from 2-point range and drawing fouls at a high rate. He hasn't shot as well from 3 point range — just 27.6% — but his versatility and athleticism will make him tough for Duke to contain. He can't beat Duke on his own either way, obviously, but it's clear he's determined to do all he can to carry the Titans through the postseason. He averaged 18 points in three Big West Tournament games and AVERAGED nine free-throw attempts and 13.3 rebounds.
NARRATIVES
Duke Win:
Duke Loss:
PREDICTION
Duke, 77-59. Duke will sweat at some point, but it won't be for long and it won't be late.
