Brownlow's Twitter Mailbag: Will NC State's title drought ever end?
Posted May 28, 2023 3:26 p.m. EDT
Happy Memorial Day weekend! This week, you all gifted me with some great questions, and I had too many to use. But I picked some highlights, including NC State's continued title drought, Drake Maye vs. Riley Leonard and UNC football expectations. And on the fun side, we'll get into some Survivor talk.
So let's get to it!
No one has ever called me an eternal optimist, but I am about NC State. Partly because I think that this streak without a title is so absurd that they'll get one eventually. Wait, I don't just think that. I KNOW that. For those who don't know:
We're now on Year 31, and NC State is the only Power 5 school without one of those titles to its name. Now, to be fair? The original "streak" included women's basketball, which took home a conference crown last year. I don't know many Wolfpack fans that didn't cherish that moment. It was not nothing. We are not erasing NC State women's basketball in this space. I refuse to do it.
Now, the drought is still pretty remarkable. But unless you believe NC State athletics is cursed — which obviously, some of you do — then you really just have to chalk it up to bad luck, and that will even itself out over time. A title is coming. I know that it is. I just don't know WHEN. And Boo Corrigan knows that too, I'm sure. Remember a few years ago when Clemson seemed like an unbeatable behemoth in football? When we were all sure that Florida State was BACK? Those things might be true again as soon as this year, but FSU's last national title came 10 years ago and they haven't been in the conversation since their CFP berth the very next season. And NC State regularly beats Florida State anyway. Clemson is still excellent, but beatable. And in basketball, do you remember when UNC had Roy Williams and Duke had Mike Krzyzewski and everyone was sure that they'd run the area for good? Long term, obviously both programs are in better shape. But as we've seen, both can have down years and NC State just has to be ready to take advantage, as other teams do.
Now, what can Boo Corrigan do about it? Mention it as rarely as possible and taut the good things about his athletic program would be my advice, but I'm not an athletic director. And fire coaches when it's time to move on, hire good ones to replace them and hope for the best.I understand why NC State fans are pessimistic. Believe me, I do. But you also can't convince me that they CAN'T win a conference crown. Literally everyone else in the league has done it. It WILL happen.
It depends on what your metric is. If you're the NFL, well, their scouts right now have Maye as a potential top pick among quarterbacks. NFLDraftBuzz.com rates Maye behind only USC's Caleb Williams right now as slots Leonard at 12th. (Although between us, I'd put Leonard above at least 5-6 of the college quarterbacks listed ahead of him.) I'd definitely rate Maye's pro potential higher than I'd rate Leonard's — RIGHT NOW, anyway. I'm wrong about college quarterbacks translating to the next level all the time, so what do I know.
But we're not talking about pro potential, I'm sure. And so if we're talking about what each can do next year with the players and coaches around them, I don't see Leonard as being far behind Maye at all.
Of the nation's top 100 players in total offense last year (rushing yards and passing yards), Maye led the way with 358.5 yards per game, ranking second in the nation (Leonard was 29th). Maye's 698 rush yards were one behind Leonard's 699, but he had 4,321 passing yards compared to Leonard's 2,967. Only four quarterbacks in the top 100 in total offense had more rush yards than Leonard and Maye. It gets more even when you get to yards per play, though: 7.16 for Maye, 7.10 for Leonard. Maye had a lot more passing yards, but he also threw it 125 more times than Leonard.
If you want my honest answer? I think it will still be Maye by the end of this year, but Leonard has the potential to take a big leap. He's in his second year in a row with offensive coordinator Kevin Johns and Maye will be adjusting to a new offensive coordinator after Phil Longo departed. Both teams have some promising wide receivers and some questions at running back (more on UNC's side than Duke's). Maye can't win games on his own, as hard as he tried to last year, and if Duke has a better year overall, that'll give Leonard more (deserved) hype. I rate Leonard as the better runner in spite of Maye's numbers, although that may be because I worry he'll break in half every time he runs and Leonard is far sturdier-looking. But on the flip side, Maye is still the better passer to me. If Leonard can take a huge step up in that department, the gap just keeps narrowing.
Speaking of UNC...
I tend to go with what I think the best-case scenario is and the worst-case. UNC's non-conference schedule gives a whole lot of room for the worst-case scenario part of my brain to kick in. I look at their schedule and think that they should be happy to make a bowl game, because there's not a whole lot of margin for error. At South Carolina in Week 1, then hosting App and Minnesota before traveling to Pitt? Getting out of that 2-2 would be solid, and 3-1 would be even better. But tell me you think they win all four. I dare you. Is it possible? Sure, but I don't see it.
Then Carolina has three straight home games against Syracuse, Miami and Virginia before traveling to Georgia Tech, which has been a house of horrors for them. UNC then ends the season hosting Campbell and rival Duke before going TO Clemson and rival NC State to end the season. That's a big yikes. Get through those final three games with two wins and I think Carolina fans have to be thrilled.
That leaves those middle games — Syracuse through Georgia Tech — as games that Carolina can't afford to lose in order to have a special season, right? Let's say Carolina goes like 3-1 in its first four games, then loses two of those winnable middle games. That puts them at 5-3 and Campbell gets them to 6-3, yes, but Duke, Clemson or even NC State could all beat Carolina. Then you're looking at 6-6 and with a special quarterback in Maye, there's a bad feeling about the season, right?
As usual with Carolina, I think it's less about the number than about the how they get to that number. Carolina won NINE games last year. Does anyone think the Tar Heels finished last season with a GOOD taste in their proverbial mouth after losing four in a row? No.
I don't see them matching last year's win total, but if they get to eight wins by the end of the year and beat Duke and NC State to end the season, and beat App and South Carolina to start it? It's a good season! It's better than last year! You want to be playing your best football at the end of the year, and this is a chance for Carolina to erase the disappointment that characterized the end of last season by doing better to end this year. But it's not going to be easy.
Sometimes, I watch Survivor and see men and women who assumed they'd be no good at the physical challenges unexpectedly thrive in them and I wonder if it could be me. And then I remember how many Survivor challenges involve things like "balance" and "athleticism", two things I don't have. So I'd have to use my brain, and that means the best chance I'd have is Jeff Probst bringing back trivia. I would cram beforehand on Fijian trivia (since all seasons are now shot on Fiji) and then talk to everyone on the island a bunch so that if we are quizzed about each other, I know that too. All I have to use is my brain, and I will use it.
Of the ones in recent seasons, the only one I'd have any shot at is the one where they drop a ball into a contraption that puts it through like a maze until it drops out of the bottom, and you have to add balls without dropping any. After each ball comes out, you have to put it back in, although you can time it how you want. I don't have the best hand-eye coordination, but if I concentrated hard enough, I could potentially outlast a bunch of people having a bad day.
There are some
