UNC's path to the Final Four could feature a familiar face
Posted March 19, 2024 12:00 p.m. EDT
Updated March 21, 2024 5:33 p.m. EDT
When the Selection Sunday show announced North Carolina earned the final No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament in the West Regional, one of the top storylines became apparent.
The Tar Heels’ seeding sets up a potential matchup against No. 2 seed Arizona and former Tar Heels guard Caleb Love in the Elite Eight if both teams make it there.
However, a run to the Final Four won’t be easy for the Tar Heels beyond what will be a favorable first-round game.
UNC’s outlook before the 2024 NCAA Tournament
Before analyzing North Carolina’s NCAA Tournament matchups, perhaps Tar Heels fans should take solace in the loss in the ACC Championship game to NC State.
In the 21st century, North Carolina has never won the national title while also winning the championships for both the ACC Tournament and the ACC regular season. North Carolina has only done that twice in program history: 1957 and 1982.
RJ Davis was the ACC Player of the Year (21.4 points per game and 40.6% from beyond the arc). He’s one of the best guards in America.
Also, Davis has improved his 3-point shooting at 40.6% this season (up from 36.2% last season, 36.7% in 2021-222 and 32.3% from 2020-2021).
While Davis has improved from deep, he has excellent touch on floater and it helps keep opposing defenses honest.
UNC big man Armando Bacot is a double-double machine.
The Tar Heels need to get forward Harrison Ingram’s shooting back on track. While Ingram is shooting 37% from 3, he was 4-for-25 in the final six regular-season games.
Also, guard Cormac Ryan shoots a respectable 34.4% from 3, but is capable of lighting it up from the outside. Ryan’s 31 points against Duke in the regular-season finale was the most a Tar Heels player had against their rival since Antawn Jamison scored 35 in February 1998.
If Ingram and Ryan are hitting their outside shots, it opens things up even more for Davis and Bacot.
With top seed, UNC gets Howard or Wagner first
North Carolina (27-7, 17-3 ACC) should be a heavy favorite in its first-round matchup against either Howard or Wagner. The 16-seeds are playing at 6:40 p.m. ET Tuesday in the First Four. That game is on TruTV.
The Tar Heels will play the winner at about 2:45 p.m. Thursday in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The first-round game airs on CBS.
Howard (18-16, 9-5 MEAC) is making its second consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance, but finished two games above .500 and was 0-1 in Quad 1 games.
The Wagner Seahawks (16-15, 7-9) are making their second NCAA Tournament appearance ever and reports show they have only seven healthy players.
Wagner was 0-2 in Quad 1 games in the 2023-24 season. The Seahawks last made it to the NCAA Tournament in 2003.
UNC could meet Izzo's Michigan State in first weekend
There are only a few active college basketball coaches who can match Michigan State’s Tom Izzo when it comes to experience in March.
UNC faces a potential second-round matchup against the Spartans. Michigan State has a strong backcourt in seniors Tyson Walker and A.J. Hoggard. Walker leads the team in scoring (18.2 points per game) and steals (1.8 steals per game).
Hoggard leads the team in assists (5.2 assists per game). Also, he has a 3 to 1 assist-to-turnover ratio.
However, Mississippi State has a nice inside-outside combo in Tolu Smith and Josh Hubbard. Smith often gets double-teamed in the post, and Hubbard is a scorer who has hit more than 100 3-point field goals in the 2023-24 season.
The Bulldogs’ Achilles heel has been free-throw shooting at 67%.
Outside shooting will get a team into the Sweet 16
Alabama is the highest-scoring team in the country at 90.8 points per game.
As a team, the Crimson Tide attempted the fourth-most 3-point attempts in all of college basketball. Only North Florida, BYU and their first round opponent, College of Charleston, attempted more 3s.
If Bama or College of Charleston get hot from the outside, they can compete with any team.
Saint Mary’s is led by sophomore guard Aidan Mahaney. The Gaels have a 6-1 record when he scored 20 or more points in a game.
Elite Eight is where Arizona, Caleb Love could challenge UNC
We're not trying to wish our lives away, but give us an Elite Eight game between North Carolina and Arizona. It would be incredible to see Caleb Love play his former team.
Wildcats guard Caleb Love is the team’s leading scorer (18.1 points per game).
A question for North Carolina if the Arizona matchup comes to fruition: Which Tar Heels player guards Love?
Also, senior center Oumar Ballo is massive at 7’0”, 260 pounds. He is the team’s second-leading scorer (13.1 points per game) and the leading rebounder (10.1 rebounds per game).
Bacot against Ballo would be a great matchup down low. The Tar Heels could aso use sophomore forward Jalen Washington to try to slow down Ballo in this hypothetical matchup.
Arizona must get by No. 15 seed Long Beach State in the first round. Losers of five consecutive games, Longbeach State rolled through the Big West Conference tournament with victories over UC Riverside, UC Irvine and UC Davis.
Days after being fired, Long Beach State head coach Dan Monson guided his team to the NCAA Tournament. Monson has coached the team for 17 years. Monson’s contract expires at the end of the season.
Monson helped Arizona head coach Tommy Lloyd get his start in coaching as a administrative assistant at Gonzaga in 2000. Lloyd was an assistant coach from 2001-2021 at Gonzaga before taking the Arizona job.
Last year, Arizona lost to No. 15 seed Princeton.
No. 3 seed Baylor has two players who are projected by some NBA experts to be first-round draft picks in Ja’Kobe Walker (14.2 points per game) and Yves Missi (11.1 points per game and 5.8 rebounds per game).
The Bears finished in the top five in the country in 3-point shooting at 40.4%.
Also, keep an eye on Dayton 6-foot-10 forward DaRon Holmes II. The Flyers use Holmes out of the high post to set up teammates with handoffs and make passes to cutting players. Holmes has outside touch and can take shorter defenders down in the post.
Holmes is surrounded by sharpshooters. Kobe Brea ranks fourth in the country in 3-point percentage at 49.2%. Kobe Elvis shoots 37.5% from 3 and Nate Santos is 42.7% from deep.
