Welter: Sam Howell proves NFL teams have no idea how to evaluate quarterbacks

By Pat Welter, WRAL Sports Reporter

I had just sat down to watch the 2nd round of the draft Friday and my wife started peppering me with questions.

"You're really into this huh?"

"Are you like... being intense on twitter?"

Then she just got to the point.

"Why are you watching this?" she asked.

Good question I thought, my answer was an emphatic "only one quarterback has been taken this is crazy!"

The stupidity of my answer sunk in as I said it out loud and we changed over to the newest episode of "Ozark". As I've thought about it more I've got a better one. The reason we all love watching, debating, and covering the draft so much is we know just as much as the teams do about quarterbacks, if not more. If a suburban accountant becoming a money launderering, drug dealing, casino owning family businessman isn't too outlandish of a TV show idea, neither is the thought of any of us drafting quarterbacks better than NFL teams.

This was just the second time in the last twenty years that only one quarterback was selected in the first round. Kenny Pickett was taken 20th overall by the Pittsburgh Steelers, the latest a first round quarterback has been picked since 1997.

On one hand you could say the teams finally wised up. The last time this happened was 2013 when Florida State's E.J. Manuel was the only QB taken in the first round by the Bills. Not a single QB from that draft ever became a regular starter. That very may well be the case with this 2022 class. I've learned to admit when it comes to quarterbacks I really don't know, but I've also learned the teams have no idea either.

The biggest fallacy with any draft is we assume every player is going to be good, when in reality Mel Kiper Jr. should probably come on and say "X player out of Y university runs a great 40 time and has the intangibles to match, but it is impossible to project his college production to the NFL. We have no idea if he will stay healthy, or if the coach/front office who drafted him will be employed next year. His success depends on too many variables to count, but I'll say something nice here because this is the best day of this kids life and I don't want to look like a complete jerk."

Go through any previous first round and you'll find way more guys you've never heard of than the pro bowlers and 10 year starters we all claim to see on draft night. First round quarterback hit rate depends on how you define it, but let's say there's about a 50% success rate that goes down every round after that. Go through the last two decades and it's pretty clear NFL teams are no better at this than your dog who you named after Tom Brady.

2016: Jared Goff and Carson Wentz go 1-2. Dak Prescott is the best QB from that draft taken in the 4th round.

2017: Mitchell Trubisky goes No. 2. Patrick Mahomes goes No. 10, Deshaun Watson No.12. (for the record I really liked DeShone Kizer, I'm not saying I know how to do this either).

2018: This one was a train wreck. Baker Mayfield No.1, Sam Darnold No. 3, Josh Allen No.7, Josh Rosen No. 10, Lamar Jackson No. 32.

I could do this all day. Peyton Manning vs. Ryan Leaf was an actual debate. So was Andrew Luck vs. RGIII (who could have forseen Luck just walking away in the end). In 2011 Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, and Christian Ponder all went in the same first round. Even with actual NFL tape teams still make massive mistakes. Houston signed Brock Osweiler to a 4-year $72 million dollar deal. He spent a grand total of 364 days as a Texan.

When I look at 2022 I say okay maybe the GMs finally learned from their mistakes, but then I see not one but two punters got taken before UNC's Sam Howell and I throw up my hands.

I think the case of Sam Howell is the cheat code to this entire draft. If you could get him in the 5th round, why wouldn't you wait? I just can't for the life of me understand how and why Howell fell to the Washington Commanders 145th overall. He goes to a team who has signed Ryan Fitzpatrick and traded for Carson Wentz the last two years. They've been looking for a franchise quarterback for three decades. They might have just lucked into a gem.

Howell was a 4-star prospect coming out of Sun Valley High School near Charlotte. He had offers from schools like Alabama, Georgia, and Clemson. He originally committed to Florida State, but flipped to UNC after FSU offensive coordinator Walt Bell left for UMass. He starts as a true freshman and leads UNC to the Orange Bowl as a sophomore. Junior year he loses his top 4 skill players to the NFL and completely changes his style of play. He rushes for 828 yards during UNC's disappointing 6-7 campaign. Prior to that season he had rushed for 181 yards his whole college career. Howell went from the top QB prospect in the 2022 draft before the season to the 5th after. A precipitous drop and one I think will be the next big draft mistake.

Before the draft I asked UNC offensive coordinator Phil Longo what will make Howell a successful NFL quarterback. Here's what he said.

"He'll be successful at the next level because of preparation, because of elite arm talent. I mean he's incredibly accurate, he can get the ball out quick which I think is a huge asset at that level. Even from this level to that level the better you get at making decisions and triggering the football the more pressure you take off the offensive line. Those are things you have to do to survive."

The irony of his answer is Howell didn't get rid of the ball quick in 2022 and it clearly hurt his stock. Anyone who really covered and watched UNC would tell you Howell was doing what he had to do to survive. He didn't have a reliable receiver other than Josh Downs. The offensive line struggled with different combinations throughout the year and he no longer had Michael Carter and Javonte Williams to put him in 3rd and manageable. The UNC offense was big play or bust. Howell didn't suddenly forget how to play the position, he sacrificed his body to give his team the best chance to win. I'd argue that's a strength not a weakness. Mack Brown will tell you how incredibly unselfish Howell is.

"Sam wouldn't do any [NIL] opportunity without involving his teammates or without it being for charity," Brown said before the draft. "People offered him a suit to go to the ACC media day, he said not unless my teammates get suits too."

As unselfish as Howell is, he's also quiet. He keeps his answers short and sweet, in most press conferences he'd default to telling you how much he just loved the game. I can see how he wouldn't wow NFL teams in interviews. He is a quiet leader. Justin Herbert got knocked for the same thing, how's that working out?

Tom Brady is the ultimate example of teams not knowing how to evaluate quarterbacks in the draft. 199th overall is just as infamous as Michael Jordan getting cut in high school. The crazy thing with Brady is teams still didn't want him on his way out of New England. On an episode of his "Man in the Arena" show on ESPN Brady said, "Unless you got one of the top few guys...I would be expecting people to be interested. "In my mind I'm thinking 'If you're another team and you're not interested in having me as your quarterback, like, what the ***** is wrong with you?"

My thoughts exactly Tom. If teams can't properly evaluate Tom Brady after six (now seven Super Bowl wins) how can we trust them with college quarterbacks? I'm not saying 145 will be the new 199, but I could easily see Howell be the next Prescott or Russell Wilson story. The point is no one has any idea how to evaluate quarterbacks. So go ahead watch the draft even if your wife tells you it's stupid. NFL teams are guessing too, and theirs is probably just as good as yours and mine.