Brownlow: NC State, Duke and Carolina all look to avenge ACC losses on busy basketball Saturday

By Lauren Brownlow, WRALSportsFan columnist/reporter

Who is good in the ACC? We kind of know who is bad. We at least know who ISN'T good. But who is? Is it anyone? Sure, you might say, you're saying this because Duke and Carolina aren't what they usually are this season. But Virginia was. And then Virginia lost to Boston College. By, like, a lot. Which means a team that could win the entire ACC has a transitive loss to Maine. No one's completely immune: Miami has a loss to Georgia Tech on its ledger while Pitt has a loss to Florida State.

Honestly, there's one team you can look at that truly does not have a bad loss: NC State. The Wolfpack's worst loss by Ken Pom ratings this season was a 3-point loss at Syracuse, ranked 108. Losing a close game on the road to a decent ACC team isn't really a bad loss. And now NC State will take on Clemson with the two going in completely different directions. NC State has won 9 of 14 since losing at Clemson in December, a loss that dropped NC State to 1-3 in the ACC. Clemson would start ACC play 7-0 before losing four of its last six games. Can the Wolfpack stay hot at home?

Meanwhile, call UNC's remaining games whatever you want — must-win, should-win, could-use-a-win — they're important. And with dwindling chances at facing quality opponents left as Selection Sunday draws closer, the Quad-1 game against Virginia becomes that much more important. Duke has somewhat quietly (by Duke standards) won three in a row since losing a close one at Virginia, two by double digits. Can Duke avenge an early-season loss at Virginia Tech, a team desperate for something good to happen and a team more than capable of winning in any building? We shall see.

Let's get to the GIFs!

CLEMSON (20-8, 12-5 ACC) AT NC STATE (22-7, 12-6 ACC)

Time: 12 p.m.
TV: RSN

#ANALYSIS

NC State lost the first matchup between these two, but that game was in 2022. That's not to say that history won't matter, and both of these teams have a lot at stake as they're trying to secure a double bye in the ACC Tournament. Clemson is in a bit of a tumble here lately, and I take no pleasure in being right about this. But Clemson needs this game. You know why? Because Clemson lost to LOUISVILLE last weekend. That's just one game, you might say. But the problem for the Tigers is that they don't have a lot of great wins and some really bad losses. Like that Louisville loss. Clemson is 4-4 on the road in ACC play but three of the wins were by three points or fewer (including by 1 at Florida State) and three of the four losses were by double digits. Between this game and the Virginia game next Tuesday, Clemson has to have one or maybe both if it wants to make the NCAA Tournament. But at least one. NC State doesn't have that to worry about, but this is not the time NC State wants to cool off. And they would sure love to avenge the loss to show how far they've come.

Defensively, turnovers will be a factor. Or a lack of them, potentially. NC State is 1-4 this season when opponents turn it over on fewer than 14% of their possessions and 21-3 when the percentage is higher than 14. In the first meeting between these two, Clemson turned it over on just 9.9% of its possessions. That will start with its guard play, and that will be important as Jarkel Joiner and Terquavion Smith both need to continue to play well. In the first game against Clemson, they combined for 26 points on 10 of 32 shooting. But in the last two games, the duo has averaged 41.5 points on 46.5% shooting. They've struggled from 3 somewhat (5 of 16 combined), and that will be a stat worth watching as well because that's a shot NC State cannot fall in love with. NC State is 2-4 this season when it attempts at least 45% of its shots from 3, and one of the wins was by 11 against Elon.

NAMES TO KNOW

Hunter Tyson. Clemson's 6-8 stretch forward has torched plenty an ACC opponent in his time, but he had a total of 21 points in his career against NC State before this season, when he poured in 31 points on 9 of 13 shooting (4 of 5 from 3, 9 of 9 from the foul line) to go with 13 rebounds in Clemson's 14-point win over the Wolfpack. Tyson has been spectacular this season, averaging 15.8 points and 9.4 rebounds on 49.2% shooting (a scorching 42.1% from 3). He leads the league in ACC-only shooting percentage, ranks fifth in two-point percentage and eighth in 3-point percentage. Clemson is 1-5 this season when Tyson picks up at least three fouls. He draws fouls nearly as well as he avoids them (he has yet to foul out this season), and NC State can't let what happened in the first meeting happen in this one.

D.J. Burns. Speaking of what happened last time, NC State's lovable leader can't have a repeat performance. Burns scored just five points in 19 minutes, an ACC-low for the big man, on 2 of 5 shooting. He also had three turnovers and five fouls, hence the 19 minutes. But he's been on an absolute tear, scoring at least 14 points in nine of the last 10 games and pouring in 39 in two wins over in-state rivals in the last two games. Burns has been a joy to watch, obviously, but he's more than that. He's important to what NC State does, and the Wolfpack has only lost one game this year when Burns saw at least 30 minutes of action. The longer he can stay on the court, the better. But Clemson has two pretty good big men in Tyson and P.J. Hall, both of whom can get you in foul trouble quickly if you're not careful. Burns knows how to play with some foul trouble — he's finished seven ACC games with four fouls, and NC State has won five of those — but better to just avoid it altogether. Clemson doesn't need the easy offense of free throws, and NC State needs Burns on the court.

NARRATIVES

NC State Win:

NC State Loss:

PREDICTION

NC State, 79-67. NC State is playing well, and Clemson really hasn't been, especially on the road.

NO. 6 VIRGINIA (21-5, 13-4 ACC) AT NORTH CAROLINA (17-11, 9-8 ACC)

Time: 6 p.m.
TV: ESPN

#ANALYSIS

Earlier this season, Virginia's offense was hotter than its defense. That is no longer the case whatsoever as the Cavaliers lead the league in ACC-only defense but rank just 10th in offensive efficiency, hitting 35.6% of its 3-pointers (6th in ACC play) but just 48.2% of its 2-pointers (13th) and getting 11.6% of its 2-point misses blocked. But on the flip side, Virginia's ACC opponents are shooting decently from 3 (34.9%) but just 47.2% from 2 and turning it over on nearly 20% of their possessions. You already don't get as many possessions against Virginia as you do against other teams.

If there's any good news for Carolina, it's weirdly that teams that hit a lot of 3s against Virginia don't usually beat Virginia. For some reason. Virginia is 10-1 when teams make over a third of their 3-point attempts against them, and three of the six worst 3-point percentages against Virginia all year came in Virginia losses. And the reason that is good news is because Carolina has made just 14 of its last 76 3-point attempts after making 15 of 33 in one game alone against Clemson. Carolina just ... does not shoot 3-pointers well this season and it would actually be somewhat stunning to see the Tar Heels suddenly start for any sustained period of time. Carolina broke 100 in offensive efficiency in 19 of its first 21 games (not a super high bar, but still) and has done so just three times in its last seven games.

Speaking of struggling offenses, though, Virginia? Are you okay? The Cavaliers had their worst offensive efficiency since the loss to UNC last year in the ACC Tournament in their horrible loss at BC on Wednesday. Their 35.6% effective field goal percentage was their worst since January 2020. And Virginia hadn't been lighting up the 3-point line coming in, now failing to make more than a third of its 3-point attempts in six straight games.

To beat a team like Virginia, you've got to have focus and good ball movement and be patient (and dogged) defensively. Can Carolina do that for 40 minutes? Will Virginia help them out coming off of an awful loss, or will the Cavaliers be extra ornery? We shall see, but we should also all know by now that we can't assume anything about UNC basketball.

NAMES TO KNOW

Reece Beekman. In the first meeting with Carolina, Virginia's senior guard was tremendous on both ends of the court, finishing with a team-high 13 points to go with five assists and five steals. He also didn't pick up a foul in 38 minutes. He broke UNC's defense down at seemingly every opportunity. Beekman has struggled some as of late too, though. He was over 100 in individual offensive efficiency in 16 of the first 21 games he played in and was in the ihgh 90s all but once in the times he didn't hit that mark. But in the last four games, he's been below 100 three times, all significantly below. He's still been a stalwart steal-maker, notching seven in the last three games and 10 in the last four, but he's 2 of 12 from the 3-point line and 6 of 25 from 2 in the last four games. In last year's ACC Tournament loss to UNC, Beekman had his second-worst ORtg of his career. As he goes, likely so go the Cavaliers in this one.

Armando Bacot. Carolina's senior leader saw just one minute of action against Virginia before having to leave with an injury in the first meeting between these two, and honestly that was about all she wrote in that game. (He did get more offensive rebounds in that one minute — 2 — than anyone else on the team did the rest of the game.) He hasn't been struggling lately as he's still notching double-doubles regularly, but he did have 10 20-point games in the first 20 games he played in and does not have one in the last eight games. Carolina could really use that right now. Of course, him getting there would require his team remembering that he exists regularly enough, which does not always happen. I will say this, though — Bacot has taken exactly one 3-point in three of the last five games (missing all three) after taking four total in the first 22. It might seem enticing after watching your teammates building brick houses from out there, Armando, but I would suggest you perhaps NOT do that.

NARRATIVES

North Carolina Win:

North Carolina Loss:

PREDICTION

North Carolina, 71-65. I have no basis for this other than it's what my gut is telling me and I felt this way about Clemson and UNC managed to win. But literally nothing would surprise me at this point.

VIRGINIA TECH (16-12, 6-11 ACC) AT DUKE (20-8, 11-6 ACC)

Time: 8 p.m.
TV: ESPN

#ANALYSIS

Perhaps no team will be more relieved to see February come to an end than Virginia Tech, which entered this month 13-8 and currently sits at 16-12 with a season-sweep loss to Boston College and a loss at Georgia Tech on its resume. The Hokies did manage to knock off Virginia and Pitt this month, so it's not all bad. But it could be better, and it could be NCAA Tournament-worthy, and it's just not.

The last time these two teams played, Virginia Tech was coming off of a seven-game losing streak and desperately needed a win. The Hokies got it, in somewhat controversial fashion (Duke? Losing a controversial game in the state of Virginia? What?). Michael Collins, Jr. hit the go-ahead shot with 33.5 seconds left and accidentally hit Kyle Filipowski celebrating, but no foul was called after a lengthy review. But that was a long time ago. Virginia Tech has had issues on defense, failing to hold an ACC opponent below 100 in offensive efficiency for all but two games. Your offense needs to be pretty good if you do that, and while it usually is for the Hokies, it hasn't been good enough. It was great against Duke in the first game, though — 122.1, the best against Duke all year and Virginia Tech's fifth-best. Duke actually notched the third-highest OE against Virginia Tech in a Virginia Tech win, and it was a close game. So if Duke's defense can improve only slightly from Game 1, all should be well.

And what's Duke been up to this lately? Winning three straight, including the last two by by an average of 19.5 points. Now, the teams they beat aren't very good. But they still count just the same, and in the last two games especially, Duke's offensive efficiency has been off the charts. Hitting 3-pointers has helped (22 of 48). But Duke getting good offensively, if that is indeed what is happening, is the last thing the rest of the ACC wants to see as the postseason approaches. Virginia Tech will put up more of a fight than its most recent opponents, but if Duke's offense is humming as well as it has been lately, it likely won't be enough.

NAMES TO KNOW

Grant Basile. Virginia Tech's 6-9 big man had 15 of his 24 points in the second half in the win over Duke earlier this season on 10 of 15 shooting, adding eight rebounds, two assists and two blocks. He leads the league in percentage of shots taken when he's on the court in ACC games only (33.2%), and Virginia Tech will run as much as possible through him. Since the Hokies' seven-game losing streak and including the first Duke game, Basile has hit 20 points six times and 30 points twice in that nine-game stretch. He had just 13 in the loss to Miami on Monday, his fewest since January 7. Duke will no doubt key in on him, and he's going to have to be ready for that in a tough environment.

Kyle Filipowski. Duke's 7-foot freshman was actually Ken Pomeroy's MVP of the first meeting between these two statistically, finishing with 29 points on 9 of 17 shooting (4 of 8 from 3) to go with 10 rebounds, two assists, two steals and a block. And of course, he got punched in the throat at the end there. Since that game, he's hit the 20-point mark once and he's 7 of 23 from 3. Duke is 1-3 this season when Filipowski fails to crack double digits, and two of those losses came in February when he managed nine points on 4 of 18 shooting in a two-game stretch that spanned Virginia and Miami. But he hasn't been as much of a dominant factor as he was in some of Duke's earlier wins this season. Which is fine. But Duke could have and arguably should have won the first meeting on his back, and maybe he can take Duke for a ride yet again. Except one that doesn't end in a throat punch.

NARRATIVES

Duke Win:

Duke Loss:

PREDICTION

Duke, 77-68. Virginia Tech keeps it within single digits, but Duke stays in control. I think.